The Minnesota Vikings enter Week 14 coming off their bye week with a 6-6 record and currently holding the sixth spot in the NFC playoff picture. However, that doesn’t begin to fully tell the tale of a topsy-turvy season that has seen the Vikings lurch from low to high and back down again.
As they prepare to face the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, what are the latest Vikings playoff chances and scenarios that could play out across the upcoming weekend? With the assistance of the free PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s look at how things could play out for Minnesota in the coming weeks.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Saints (6-7) defeated Panthers (1-12)
Buccaneers (6-7) defeated Falcons (6-7)
Tampa Bay now leads the NFC South after Week 14
Bears (5-8) defeated Lions (9-4)
Ravens (10-3) defeated Rams (6-7)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
49ers (10-3) defeated Seahawks (6-7)
Vikings (7-6) defeated Raiders (5-8)
SNF Game Update
Cowboys (10-3) defeated Eagles (10-3)
What Are the Minnesota Vikings Playoff Chances Entering Week 14?
Entering Week 14, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Vikings a 49.3% chance of making the playoffs this season. Given what we’ve seen from the Vikings in 2023, and the fact they’re only ahead of teams at 6-6 in the NFC Wild Card picture due to NFL playoff tiebreakers, essentially a 50-50 shot feels very much the right number.
Heading into their Week 12 Monday Night Football game, the Vikings may have had half an eye on the NFC North crown. At that point, Minnesota was 6-5 and just two games in the loss column behind a Detroit Lions team that had just been upset at home on Thanksgiving by the Green Bay Packers.
Unfortunately, for the Vikings, a loss to the Chicago Bears, combined with a Lions win in Week 13, has left Minnesota three games back in the division. With the Vikings and Lions set to face off in Weeks 16 and 18, that is by no means insurmountable. However, per ESPN’s FPI projections, the Vikings have just a 6.4% chance of winning the division entering Week 14.
What Playoff Scenarios Could Play Out for the Vikings in Week 14?
With all of the teams around them in the NFC playoffs playing this week, the Vikings’ range of outcomes is intriguing. A win against the Raiders would ensure they’re still in a playoff spot at the end of the week and sitting as the sixth seed in the NFC. It’s worth noting that if the Vikings win out, the sixth seed is the minimum they would achieve this season.
MORE: Minnesota Vikings Depth Chart
Where things get interesting is if the Vikings lose this week. A loss for Minnesota in Las Vegas could see them slip out of the playoff picture at the end of Week 14 if any two of the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, and Packers are victorious.
The lowest position in terms of “seeding” that the Vikings can be at the end of this weekend is ninth. Regardless of what happens with the NFC South teams, the teams from that division in playoff contention cannot get above Minnesota, even if they’re all 6-7 by the end of the week.
When Can Minnesota Clinch a Playoff Spot?
If you’re looking for how soon the Vikings can clinch a playoff spot, that has a wide range of outcomes based on those around them. Feasibly, if the Packers, Seahawks, Rams, Saints, Buccaneers, and Falcons lose over the next couple of weeks, the Vikings could be looking at a chance to clinch a playoff spot in Week 16 or 17.
The end of Week 16 is feasibly the earliest that Minnesota can get to a point where they are three wins ahead of the eighth-seeded team with two games to play. However, several results would need to go their way to make that the case with so many teams involved right now.
Minnesota would need two of the three out of the Packers, Rams, and Seahawks to lose their next three games. In principle it could happen, but more likely we’re looking at that Week 17 game against Green Bay being the chance to drop the hammer and clinch a playoff spot this season.
Can the Vikings Still Win the NFC North?
The simple answer here is yes, the Vikings can still win the NFC North. Right now, they’re three games back with five to play.
Helping them is that two of those five are against Detroit, so if Minnesota wins both matchups, they would need the Lions to lose one other game, which is very much still in play.
The Lions’ remaining schedule sees them face the Bears in Week 14, the Denver Broncos in Week 15, the Vikings in Weeks 16 and 18, and then the Dallas Cowboys in Week 17. That looks like a tougher run than the Vikings, who have the Raiders, Bengals, and Packers in Weeks 14, 15, and 16.
When the Vikings kick off on Sunday, they could have the fate of the division in their own hands. A loss for the Lions against the Bears would mean that Minnesota can clinch the division if they win out, regardless of what Detroit does against the Broncos and Cowboys.
MORE: Green Bay Packers Playoff Scenarios and Chances
However, the caveat of all of this is that the Vikings have very little margin for error. They need to win at least one more game than the Lions down the stretch. If in the process they sweep Detroit, that gives them the division crown. If the two teams split their matchups, it will all come down to playoff tiebreakers, which evolve greatly over the coming weeks.
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