The NFC playoff picture is far from fully developed, with the NFL calendar steamrolling through November. But some teams are beginning to separate themselves from the pack.
The Minnesota Vikings, after dropping two straight games last month, have won four games in a row, with their latest coming in Week 12 against the Bears. Only one other NFC team has more wins than the Vikings’ eight.
So, where does that put the Vikings in the NFC playoff picture? Let’s take a closer look.
Can the Vikings Make the Playoffs?
Heading into Week 13, the Minnesota Vikings are 9-2 and now have a 95.6% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 15.3% chance for the 1 seed, a 4.8% chance for the second seed, a 0.6% chance for the third seed, a <0.1% chance for the fourth seed, a 33.1% chance for the fifth seed, a 34.0% chance for the sixth seed, and a 7.9% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Vikings Win the NFC North?
Here’s what the NFC North race looks like after all the action in Week 12:
- The Detroit Lions have a 68.4% chance to win the NFC North.
- The Minnesota Vikings have a 20.7% chance to win the NFC North.
- The Green Bay Packers have a 10.9% chance to win the NFC North.
- The Chicago Bears have a <0.1% chance to win the NFC North.
Current NFC North Standings
- Detroit Lions (10-1)
- Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
- Green Bay Packers (8-3)
- Chicago Bears (4-7)
NFC Playoff Race | Week 16
1. Detroit Lions (13-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (11-4)
7. Washington Commanders (10-5)
In The Hunt
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
9. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Eliminated From Playoffs
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-10)
14. Chicago Bears (4-11)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-11)
16. New York Giants (2-13)
Vikings’ Super Bowl Chances in Week 12
Can the Vikings win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Minnesota has a 4.2% chance to win it all.
Vikings’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 13: vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Week 14: vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Week 15: vs. Chicago Bears
- Week 16: at Seattle Seahawks
- Week 17: vs. Green Bay Packers
- Week 18: at Detroit Lions
What PFN Predicted for the Bears-Vikings Matchup
While Minnesota Vikings DC Brian Flores is a diabolical blitzer, that may not be his plan against Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams on Sunday.
No opposing team has blitzed Williams on over 38% of his dropbacks in a single game. Flores has crossed that threshold in five of the Vikings’ 10 games, but he’s typically sent blitzes against experienced quarterbacks like Brock Purdy and Jared Goff. He’s dialed it back in recent weeks against unproven signal-callers like Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence.
Moreover, Flores may think he can avoid blitzing while still getting pressure on Williams. Although the Bears’ offensive line is getting healthier, they’ve still had issues against wonky pressure looks. By using sim pressures and creepers — rushing four with at least one back-seven defender involved — the Vikings might be able to confuse Chicago’s OL without turning up the blitz.
Minnesota may need the extra bodies in coverage because they’ve struggled to contain passing attacks despite facing weak competition over the past month. Since Week 7, the Vikings rank 28th in EPA per dropback (-0.13) — mainly due to big plays. Only the Browns and (coincidentally) the Bears have allowed a higher explosive pass rate over the last four weeks.
If Chicago’s offensive line can hold up, Williams should have time to find Moore or Odunze for downfield chunk plays. But it seems just as likely that Minnesota’s front seven will wreak havoc on a disorganized Bears offensive operation.
PFN Prediction: Vikings 24, Bears 21