Through 10 weeks, only two players (Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa) have more touchdown passes than Russell Wilson, and the Vikings are being led by a QB no one wanted.
Football is a crazy game, so let’s embrace the variance and use some same game parlay picks to build out a nice Sunday night card!
Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos Odds
- Spread
Broncos -2.5 - Moneyline
Vikings +110, Broncos -130 - Total
42.5
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: What is the higher total — teams Joshua Dobbs has played for or his number of career games with 225 passing yards?
The Broncos ask you to take your medicine through the air for 60 minutes and are essentially betting against you in staying disciplined. Don’t believe me? Let’s look at some of their results…
- Recent wins over Jordan Love and Josh Allen
- Losses against Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Howell, and Zach Wilson
MORE: NFL Against the Spread Standings
Their fourth-lowest opponent aDOT suggests that they are taking this strategy to an extreme. The K.J. Osbron splits are pretty interesting when facing defenses that have a top-12 opponent aDOT when compared to all other games:
- Top 12: 10% target share, 0 games with 4+ catches, 0 games with 45+ yards
- Otherwise: 18.7% target share, 80% games with 4+ catches, 80% games with 45+ yards
For the season, Osborn’s aDOT is 25.4% lower than that of Jordan Addison, making his return from the concussion that sidelined him last week a reasonable spot to invest in.
If we have the Vikings moving the ball, let’s double down. The Vikings have won the race to 10 points in four of five games during this win streak and, for the season, rank fourth in limiting opponent red-zone trips.
On the flip side, the Broncos rank fourth-worst in opponent red-zone trips, and the only other time this season we saw them on less than full rest, they failed to muster 200 yards of offense against the Chiefs.
Ask Buffalo fans, and they will confirm that, without a bevy of turnovers, they probably beat Denver last week. The bend-don’t-break Broncos can work in the right spots; I just don’t think this is that.
Dobbs has yet to turn the ball over with the Vikings and has just six turnovers on 392 opportunities this season as a whole (pass and rush attempts).
- Trivia Answer: For his career, Dobbs has had more games with 225+ passing yards (five) than teams he has played a game for (four).
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Vikings Race to 10, Vikings moneyline, Osborn over 3.5 receptions
- Odds: +650 (at DraftKings)*
*You can add a dollar onto your payout if you want to tie in his receiving yardage as a correlated fourth leg. If you want a FanDuel version, the Vikings to win the first half and the game, along with Osborn going over 3.5 receptions, pays +548.
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