The Minnesota Vikings‘ outlook dives into the fantasy football values of their receivers, while the Cincinnati Bengals‘ fantasy preview talks about the success of Jake Browning.
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals
- Spread: Bengals -3.5
- Total: 39
- Vikings implied points: 17.8
- Bengals implied points: 21.3
Quarterbacks
Jake Browning: At his current per-start basis, Browning will set the all-time passing record in the final week of the 2041 regular season, so plan accordingly.
The rookie has looked remarkably comfortable, but are we buying consecutive top-five finishes as anything predictive? I’m not. He posted a sub-five-yard aDOT in Week 13, and his big play last week was a dump-off pass that Chase Brown took 54 yards to the house.
The Vikings are the fifth-best defense in terms of the fewest missed tackles per game, and that’s enough for me to lose interest in Browning at this point of the season. My QB21 ranking of him this week might prove to be low, but I feel good about slotting Browning behind Matthew Stafford, the QB I’m targeting if streaming the position is your only hope.
Running Backs
Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler: Mattison is dealing with an ankle injury that cost him the final quarter-plus of Week 14, which deserves monitoring. While his health matters, the analysis doesn’t change — I’m interested in starting back in Minnesota.
The Bengals are a bottom-five run defense across the board, and they’ll be on short rest for a second consecutive week — a scheduling rarity since they played on Monday night in Week 13, Sunday in Week 14, and host the Vikings on Saturday this week.
MORE: Should You Start Alexander Mattison or Ty Chandler in Fantasy Football in Week 15?
Neither of these players is the type that is likely to win you your week, but with the lead role in an above-average offense, the starting RB deserves to be locked into lineups this weekend.
Joe Mixon: Brown’s stock is gaining momentum much the way Rico Dowdle’s is in Dallas, and that’s fine. But don’t confuse that as a knock on the starter.
Just like Tony Pollard, Mixon’s role (49 touches during these back-to-back wins) isn’t going anywhere, even with the success of his understudy. Mixon out-snapped Brown 38-18 in last week’s win over the Colts, a role advantage that I expect him to maintain for the remainder of the season.
I don’t think we’re looking at an efficient afternoon (3.8 yards per carry this season, and the Vikings allow the fifth-fewest YPC this season), but with 15-18 carries and likely 4-6 targets, Mixon’s status is locked in as an RB2.
Chase Brown: The rookie out of Illinois has racked up 166 yards on 20 touches over the past two weeks, showcasing juice that this backfield has been missing. As mentioned, I don’t think he’s a threat to take over for Mixon, but Brown’s explosive potential is a key to the shallow passing attack under Browning.
Brown is just outside of my top 30 at the position — putting him in the same tier as Gus Edwards and Tyjae Spears as RBs who can produce viable numbers without high-end volume.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson: After passing Randy Moss for the most receiving yards in NFL history before turning 25, Jefferson suffered a chest injury and was taken to the hospital as a precaution shortly after that.
Forget your fantasy team; this is a brutal blow for an All-Pro who worked hard to get out there for his team after missing seven straight games with a hamstring injury. Monitor the PFN NFL and Fantasy Player News Tracker for the latest on this situation, but as things stand right now, I’d plan on operating again without your first-round pick. Injuries are the worst.
Jordan Addison: This is an exploitable matchup, but Addison’s role is what worries me. I’m not at all sold that this offense can sustain three viable pass catchers, so if Jefferson is active, Addison fades well off of my Flex radar. No questions asked.
The situation gets a little more complicated should Jefferson sit — the Bengals own the highest opponent aDOT and allow the second-most yards per pass this season.
In this instance, Addison would move up 10-12 spots and be a Flex option in deeper leagues or ones that require three receivers to start. I worry about the quantity and quality of looks for Addison no matter who plays, but there’s at least a path to usage if he’s the No. 2 option next to T.J. Hockenson as opposed to No. 3.
Ja’Marr Chase: His massive showing in Week 13 under Browning left us all in awe. “Is Chase still an elite option, even without Joe Burrow?”
At the time, it was a fair question, given how the offense functioned in that win to keep Browning comfortable. But after seeing him settle in and find his rhythm in Week 14, it’s clear that Browning isn’t going to sustain a top receiver that is anything close to elite.
Last week against the Colts, Chase wasn’t anything special. He wasn’t force-fed looks, nor did he do anything exceptional down the field. He was one of six Bengals that saw 3-4 targets, which is a problem since Cincinnati would prefer to run the ball to shorten games.
Now, per the Week 15 Cheat Sheet, the Vikings do allow the fourth-most completions per game (24.5), and Chase is still the alpha in this passing game. I have more faith in Browning’s competency than some of the other backup/low-end QBs and, thus, have Chase ranked ahead of Keenan Allen, Garrett Wilson, and Adam Thielen.
He’s my WR20, settling in behind the receivers with volume I trust and just ahead of the upside receivers that come with either a wide range of outcomes or limited target consistency.
Tee Higgins: In his two games back after missing a month, Higgins has earned just an 11.3% target share — a rate that wouldn’t land a receiver inside my top 30 if those passes were coming from Patrick Mahomes. Spoiler alert: As good as Browning has been, he’s not Mahomes.
The fact that Browning has been as good as he has without targeting Higgins is a major red flag. We could be looking at a mismatching of skills and/or a receiver in Higgins who isn’t 100 percent healthy.
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Whatever the case may be, I can’t get on board with flexing Higgins this week. He had a touchdown called back last week because he pushed off in the end zone, and he just doesn’t fit the mold of a player trending in a strong enough direction for me to trust.
The Vikings allow the second-fewest red-zone trips per game, so even a bail-me-out touchdown is a long shot.
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson: I don’t care who is playing quarterback. Or running back. Or receiver. Hockenson has been the lone consistent part of this Vikings offense in 2023, and I don’t think that changes anytime soon.
Since joining Minnesota last season, Hock is averaging 6.3 receptions. Sure, he doesn’t have a 30-yard catch while wearing purple and gold, but the volume is nothing short of elite and gives you a distinct advantage over the majority of your league.
The Bengals allow the sixth-most passing yards and the second-most red-zone trips per game. Hockenson may stub his toe at some point, but this matchup doesn’t look like that spot.
Should You Start Joe Mixon or Zack Moss?
Hi. I’m the problem. It’s me.
I’m willing to triple down on Moss with Jonathan Taylor sidelined. The usage he has flashed over the past two weeks is Christian McCaffrey-ian, but the production has been Najee Harris-ian.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
Mixon is a fine play with a stable floor, but he has been on the right side of scoring variance while Moss has run into misfortune (touchdowns called back in consecutive games). They are both players I am comfortable starting, but Moss’ alpha role has been drooling — even after two failures to produce in the same spot.
Should You Start Tee Higgins or George Pickens?
In contrast to the running back question above, I’m not comfortable in counting on either player here. Higgins’ low target share since Browning took over is a massive concern, as is Pickens’ disinterest in his offense.
If you’re in a bind, I lean toward Pickens. With six Bengals seeing 3-4 targets last week, the path to meaningful volume is more clear for Pickens, though I’m not betting on either seeing much in the way of scoring opportunities.
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