The Minnesota Vikings fantasy preview centers around this offense sans Kirk Cousins, while the Atlanta Falcons fantasy outlook evaluates their primary weapons following the benching of Desmond Ridder.
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons
- Spread: Falcons -4.5
- Total: 37.5
- Vikings implied points: 16.5
- Falcons implied points: 21
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins: An Achilles tendon tear was made official on Monday and will sideline Cousins for the remainder of the season. This is a blow for one of fantasy football’s better values this summer (four top-10 performances prior to injury) and will have a ripple effect on all involved, but we will get to that in a minute.
Cousins can safely be dropped in all redraft leagues, and Jaren Hall (fifth-rounder out of BYU) carries no value as a replacement option.
Taylor Heinicke: The Falcons went to Heinicke as a precaution last week while Desmond Ridder was being evaluated for a concussion. Even with the health boxes checked, the Falcons have elected to start the back-up this week.
Ridder had a rushing score or multiple passing touchdowns in each of his past three healthy games, numbers that Heinicke has a chance at walking into against a Vikings team that ranks below league average in time of possession, red-zone defense, and pressure rate when blitzing.
Running Backs
Alexander Mattison: He was a top-20 producing fantasy RB in four of his first five games this season but hasn’t done it once since, finishing outside of the top 35 in consecutive weeks.
While the production has been underwhelming of late, Mattison did put to bed any immediate role concerns last week, as he worked well ahead of Cam Akers (per the Week 9 Cheat Sheet, 44-17 edge in snaps and 22-4 in routes).
Normally, I’d argue that the loss of Cousins hurts Mattison in terms of scoring equity, but for a player with zero rushing scores on 106 carries this season, there isn’t much value to lose in that regard. He’s been held under 45 rushing yards in four straight, and despite a strong role in terms of playing time, has been held under five receiving yards in three of his past five.
Mattison has fallen into the unappealing Dameon Pierce tier of back where you feel gross about starting but may not have an option. In an ugly week, Mattison’s volume gets him to RB23 in my ranks.
Cam Akers: He broke the seal in terms of rushing scores for the Vikings last week — yep, his six-yarder in the first quarter was their first of the season — but 10 touches for 25 yards isn’t exactly the type of encouraging performance we were hoping for.
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Akers is very much in the crowded tier of backup RBs who get enough work to be rostered. I have him at the bottom of that crew (Devin Singletary, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, and Tyler Allgeier being the other members), taking into consideration the risk of offensive performance in the first week sans Cousins.
You’re not playing Akers, and with the potential for this offense to completely crater, he’s not far from the cut list.
Bijan Robinson: The rookie was able to find paydirt on the ground for the first time last week against a stingy Tennessee Titans run defense. However, Robinson being held catchless on five targets left fantasy managers feeling as if there was meat left on the bone.
He only had three more carries than Tyler Allgeier last week, but Robinson doubling him up in rushing production is a reminder of his potential.
The Vikings have allowed just 40 total points during their three-game win streak, holding Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, and AJ Dillon all without a 10-yard carry over the past two weeks. This isn’t a defense I’m fading, but they’re playing better these days, which has me off of Robinson when it comes to DFS.
Tyler Allgeier: He has two games this season in which he performed at a top-30 level: Robinson’s NFL debut and headache-gate against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers two weeks ago.
Outside of those two instances, it’s largely been empty calories when it comes to Allgeier’s involvement in this low-octane offense.
In a pinch, you can go this direction. You just have to do so with the understanding that the ceiling isn’t high. Allgeier has been held without a catch in three of his past four games and hasn’t scored since Week 1.
I’d rather roll the dice on Jaylen Warren against a defense that struggles against the pass or a Singletary/Dillon type where the starter isn’t reliable.
Wide Receivers
Jordan Addison: Hall averaged 8.6 yards per pass during his collegiate career, but we’re talking about a rookie QB whose college career completion percentage was lower than Cousins’ career rate in the NFL.
Say what you will about Zach Wilson, but with NFL experience under his belt, he was more prepared to start when Aaron Rodgers went down in Week 1 than Hall is now.
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In his first five games, Wilson’s WR1, Garrett Wilson (who also had a season of work on his résumé, not to mention more draft capital than Addison holds), averaged 55.8 receiving yards per game, and his average weekly finish was WR33.
Guess where Addison currently sits in my ranks? WR33.
For this week, he joins the rank of WR1s with serious QB questions — Wilson, Drake London, and DeAndre Hopkins. Even in a good matchup, the odds are high that you have a Flex option that I prefer to Addison (Rashee Rice, Josh Downs, Joshua Palmer, Zack Moss, and Darrell Henderson, to name a few).
K.J. Osborn: This season, Osborn has one performance where he finished better than WR34. I’d keep him stashed if for no reason other than we just don’t know what this offense will look like under Hall, but he’s easily outside of my top 40 wide receivers this week.
Barring a surprise, Osborn will be a drop candidate after this game with a tough matchup on tap (vs. New Orleans Saints) and Justin Jefferson eligible to return.
Drake London: A groin injury cost London the final quarter-plus of last week’s plus-matchup against the Titans, resulting in him finishing with a very Drake London performance where he scores roughly a fantasy point per target (five catches on seven targets for 55 yards).
No reporting out of Atlanta has suggested that this injury is anything to worry about. Thus, I’m operating under the assumption that he’ll be at full strength. He’s not a top-30 receiver this season and isn’t for me in this seemingly fine matchup, but I do think the hate has gone a touch too far.
London has yet to put up the numbers we had hoped for, but in half of his games this season, he has finished the week ranked between 21-36 at the position. The ceiling isn’t overwhelming, but in terms of the WRs I have ranked around him (Tyler Lockett, Hopkins, Rashid Shaheed, and Tank Dell to give you an idea), that level of consistency holds value in the right spot.
Should this injury linger, Van Jefferson’s usage becomes interesting for deeper leagues or punt DFS situations. The former Ram was on the field for over 73% of Atlanta’s first-half snaps last week while London was fully healthy. My opinion of the Atlanta pass catchers didn’t change at all with the move Heinicke.
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson: For the sixth time in eight games, Hockenson hauled in six passes last week. He even scored for the first time since Week 2.
Do I worry about this quarterback situation? Of course. But it would take a significant dip in volume for Hock to fall out of the second-tier tight ends that he shares with Mark Andrews.
It’s all speculation until we have some Hall numbers to work with, but a young QB against the second-highest pressure defense in the NFL pushes me toward projecting Hockenson’s volume (8.5 targets per game) to remain steady.
You’re playing him in all formats. And if ownership is pushing off all things Minnesota this week in the DFS streets, I have no problem in paying up to be different.
Kyle Pitts: Pitts caught a pass on consecutive plays early in the second quarter last week against the Titans and … one catch in the other 59 minutes and 30 seconds of the game.
The flashes look good, but they’re nothing more than that. Flashes. Nothing you can count on over the course of an entire game.
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The nature of the tight end position keeps Pitts on the starting radar, but with under 50 yards in seven of eight games, he’s part of the TE blob.
“TE blob”: The tier of tight ends that extends from TE10 through TE20 that serves as something of a random number generator when it comes to fantasy production.
Jonnu Smith: The two-tight end thing in Atlanta seems to have run its course. Smith had as many pass attempts as targets and has now seen his yardage total dip in four straight games.
The volume is trending in the wrong direction in a hurry, and this isn’t an offense that is going to offer up many scoring chances. I’d rather take Donald Parham Jr.’s role as a touchdown vulture.
Should You Start Alexander Mattison or Rhamondre Stevenson?
I have these two ranked back-to-back this week, both checking in as low-end RBs with significant risk involved. That said, Mattison’s usage last week suggested that he is the clear top back in this offense. That’s more than we can say for Rhamondre Stevenson with Ezekiel Elliott continuing to cut into his work.
Both of these offenses offer little stability, and that has me doubting that either one of these two reaches the end zone. In a situation like that, I side with the volume, and Mattison has a leg up in that regard.
Should You Start Jordan Addison or Josh Downs?
As encouraged as I’ve been in Addison’s recent production, the change under center is simply too much for me to overlook in this spot, with Josh Downs trending in a positive direction under Gardner Minshew. The rookie has posted four straight top-35 finishes, adding a nice floor to his résumé.
I’m avoiding the unknown at this point in the ranks, and Downs certainly has the edge in that regard.
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