Is Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders on the precipice of a career season in 2021? The Eagles ranked 10th in rushing yards per game (126.7) and 22nd in rushing attempts (25.2) per game last year. Sanders only accumulated 1,068 total yards in 2020 compared to 1,327 in 2019. However, he missed four games because of a knee injury last year. This article will provide ADP information for Sanders as well as salient Eagles context and the impact on Sanders and his fantasy football outlook for 2021.
Miles Sanders’ fantasy outlook for 2021
The Eagles enter the 2021 season with a new starting quarterback in Jalen Hurts and a new head coach, Nick Sirianni. Philadelphia also added two running backs to the roster.
The Eagles drafted Kenneth Gainwell in the fifth round of this year’s NFL Draft. He was named the Mississippi Class 3A Mr. Football as a high school senior. Gainwell redshirted his freshman season after four games and was buried behind Darrell Henderson, Patrick Taylor, and Tony Pollard on Memphis’ depth chart. However, Gainwell had an opportunity to shine in 2019 and delivered.
He led Memphis in rushing yards (1,459) during the 2019 season and was second in receptions (51). He started in 13 of 14 contests and averaged a robust 148 yards from scrimmage per game, which ranked sixth nationally behind names that included Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor and Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins. Gainwell was recognized as a first-team All-AAC member and the AAC Rookie of the Year. Then the COVID-19 pandemic happened.
Gainwell made the decision not to return to Memphis for the 2020 season. Opportunity share is a valuable commodity for running backs, especially in fantasy football. Gainwell is unlikely to be named the starter over Sanders, but the rookie will have a role and siphon touches away. No one knows for sure what Philadelphia’s offense will look like in 2021. I believe that with Hurts under center, Sirianni will lean heavily on the running game. This will open up play-action pass opportunities and allow the Eagles to emphasize the screen game.
How will new acquisitions affect Sanders’ role in 2021?
On the surface, it’s easy to think that Sanders will be even more involved in the passing game. The concern is that his receiving output decreased from his first season to his second. He accumulated 50 receptions, 509 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns in 2019. Last year, he finished with 28 receptions and 197 receiving yards. The addition of Gainwell will only further hinder Sanders’ receiving production.
The Eagles also claimed former Lions running back Kerryon Johnson off of waivers. The former Auburn RB stockpiled 2,494 rushing yards to go with 32 rushing touchdowns over three seasons with the Tigers. Johnson had a solid start to his NFL career in 2018. He finished as an RB2 or better in 40% of his 10 active games before a left knee sprain ended his campaign.
A knee injury also derailed Johnson’s 2019 season, but he played 16 games for the first time last year. The 24-year-old running back is looking for a chance to rehabilitate his career. Johnson, like Gainwell, will be provided some opportunities in the backfield.
Additionally, Boston Scott will return to the Eagles’ backfield in 2021. He played 383 offensive snaps last year and amassed 116 opportunities, finishing with 586 total yards. He should continue to see a steady dose of opportunities this season.
The Eagles have a collection of capable running backs. Sanders will open the season as the leader of Philadelphia’s committee but may not see a dominant role.
Miles Sanders’ fantasy projection
It’s important to briefly examine Sanders’ past before discussing his projection for 2021. He only played 53% of the offensive snaps during his rookie season in 2019. As a rookie, the Penn State alum averaged 15 opportunities, 83 total yards, and 13.8 PPR fantasy points per game in 16 active contests.
In 2020, Sanders was only active in 12 games, playing 71% of the offensive snaps. He averaged 18 opportunities, 89 total yards, and 14.6 PPR fantasy points per game. His career per-game average in multiple statistical areas is eerily similar. Sanders had higher fantasy points per opportunity during his rookie season in 2019 (0.90) than in 2020 (0.77). He could see a similar opportunity share to his rookie season in 2021. Furthermore, it is not wise to expect a player’s efficiency to carry over from one season to the next.
Next, let’s briefly discuss the Eagles’ offensive line. They had several starting line combinations due to all of the injuries this unit dealt with. Brandon Brooks, Andre Dillard, Isaac Seumalo, Lane Johnson, Jack Driscoll, and Jason Peters all missed time in 2020. Jason Kelce was the only player to start every game last season.
It is worth noting that the Eagles’ offseason acquisitions on the offensive line are both coming off injuries, too. Philadelphia signed Le’Raven Clark in free agency and selected Landon Dickerson in the second round of the draft. If this unit can stay healthy in 2021, they have a chance to be one of the top offensive lines in the NFL. This would be great for Sanders’ fantasy outlook and the entire Eagles offense.
Miles Sanders’ 2021 projection
Given the information we have around Sanders, both historically and looking at his outlook this season, he projects for around 15 opportunities per game in 2021. This would increase substantially if Scott or Gainwell were to miss time. It is also possible for Sanders to see fewer carries in the red zone due to Hurts’ rushing prowess. Sanders can be viewed as more of a low-end RB2. A reasonable projection for him is around 240 touches, 1,200 total yards, and 7 touchdowns.
Miles Sanders’ ADP in fantasy drafts
Sanders is readily available in the third round of fantasy drafts when you review redraft ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator. This trend is also similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Sanders has an ADP of 30.39 as the RB18 overall. His ADP is slightly lower in PPR formats on Sleeper (27.5). It would be surprising to see Sanders’ ADP change this summer unless Scott or Gainwell suffer a long-term injury.
Should you draft Sanders at this ADP in 2021?
My biggest concern with Sanders is that his ceiling for fantasy is lower than some of his peers with a similar ADP. He is a player that I’m okay selecting if he falls in a draft, but Sanders isn’t someone I’m reaching for. Other players at his ADP are better positioned to provide a significant return on investment that you should prioritize, such as Seahawks RB Chris Carson or Bears RB David Montgomery.
Eric is a Senior Fantasy Analyst for Pro Football Network and a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). You can read more of his work here and follow Eric on Twitter @EricNMoody.