There have certainly been flashes of big-play excellence from WR Mike Williams throughout his first seven years in the NFL. Yet, Williams’ fantasy football outlook heading into 2024 is loaded with red flags and potential pitfalls as a member of the New York Jets.
Can Williams overcome his devastating knee injury and deny Father Time for one more season to produce one more big fantasy year worth of production in 2024?
Mike Williams’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Williams has consistently been one of the biggest teases in all of fantasy football over his first seven years with the Los Angeles Chargers. Despite producing 309 receptions for 4,806 receiving yards and 31 TDs during his tenure with the Bolts, Williams has produced just one top-30 fantasy finish in full-PPR formats over his NFL career while playing second fiddle to Keenan Allen.
As always, the talent and production were on display even as recently as last season. In 2023, Williams finished with 16+ fantasy points in 66% of his games. Unfortunately, that sample size was just a total of three games, as he tore his ACL against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3, prematurely ending his sixth year in the league as the WR112 with 19 receptions for 249 yards and one score.
After the Chargers decided to part ways with the veteran receiver this offseason, Williams promptly signed with the Jets to catch passes from QB Aaron Rodgers this upcoming season.
On paper, this sounds great. Yet, Williams is still positioned to play a distant complementary option to Garrett Wilson in this passing attack. Additionally, he’ll have to compete for looks with rookie Malachi Corley — who was arguably the best RAC threat at receiver in the loaded 2024 NFL Draft.
Another encouraging sign is Williams being activated from the PUP list earlier this training camp, but this doesn’t make him a lock to be ready for the season opener.
The bottom line is going to feel a bit harsh, but Williams has seen 100+ targets once in his career, topped 1,000 yards receiving just twice, and never topped 80 receptions. His new landing spot, paired with an uncertain timetable to return for the start of the upcoming season, makes it difficult to project a career year in 2024.
Williams’ ADP of No. 147 overall in the 13th round as the WR56 off the board certainly suggests fantasy managers are skeptical of his fantasy upside in 2024. For some additional context, Williams is being drafted after Romeo Doubs, Jakobi Meyers, and Jerry Jeudy.
Ultimately, Williams has shown us during his NFL career that he can be a productive fantasy receiver when he is healthy — no one is denying that. Yet, he has never been a target hog, hasn’t been the model of durability, and is recovering from a torn ACL heading into a season where he will turn 30 years old.
Wilson is set up to be the target hog of this offense, Corley is positioned to be an underneath RAC contributor who operates out of the slot, and Breece Hall has proven to be a very reliable checkdown option after leading all running backs in the NFL with 95 targets last season.
Sure, Rodgers’ excellent ball placement in the red zone and effectiveness pushing the ball down the field and outside the numbers gives Williams some TD upside — if he manages to get fully healthy — but no guarantee comes to fruition.
If you want to throw a dart at Williams late in your fantasy draft, then, by all means, do so; the price point makes sense. Yet, I feel like there are far too many questions surrounding his 2024 outlook to bank on a breakout fantasy season from Williams this year.
