Mike Williams is a tough player to value properly in fantasy football. The physical makeup, skill set, and offensive potential are all there, but he’s very much lacked consistency for the entirety of his career, and the Los Angeles Chargers spent a first-round pick on another supersized receiver.
Williams will turn 29 in October and has a pair of seasons with at least nine touchdowns sprinkled alongside four seasons with no more than five scores. How lucky do you feel?
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Mike Williams’ Fantasy Outlook
As mentioned, Quentin Johnston (21st overall pick out of TCU) was drafted in April and figures to challenge Williams’ vertical routes. I mean, is he not just a younger version of Williams’ profile?
- 6’3” Johnston (college): Touchdown every 8.2 catches
- 6’4” Williams (college): Touchdowns every 8.4 catches
Outside of that addition, this offense is largely the same as it was last season, with Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, and Justin Herbert being the primary producers for a team that ranked second in pass rate.
Williams missed four games last season, giving him multiple missed games in three of the past four seasons. That’s an obvious concern, as is the fact that his yards per catch has dipped in each of the past three campaigns.
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While there are negatives, there is no denying the unique upside of where he is currently being drafted. The general pieces are similar to that of the 2021 version of the Chargers that ranked fifth in scoring, and Kellen Moore was brought over from Dallas to rediscover that upside.
We also caught a glimpse of just how good Williams can be when he is right: He scored or racked up 120 yards in four of five games to open last season. There is no question that this offense and his skill set offer significant upside; it’s just a matter of how often those moving pieces align.
How Does Quentin Johnston Impact Williams’ Upside?
This is a little bit of an inexact science. Yes, it’s concerning that Herbert ranked 31st in aDOT last season and that Williams will, in theory, have to share at least some of the deep looks. On the other side of that coin is the addition of Moore and the likelihood that this offense is opened up in a major way.
The struggle with rostering Williams is the low weekly floor. Sure, the four games he had at least seven catches last season were great, but they were offset by the four times he failed to haul in more than two balls. Even if Moore does make this offense more friendly to a Williams-type receiver, as is expected, it’s hard to think that floor doesn’t still exist with Johnston now in the mix.
But maybe the production floor is lagging? That is, his skill profile is trending in a positive direction, so maybe 2022 was simply poor luck? His ability to produce receptions on a per-route basis is moving in a very positive direction — skill development that can result in consistent fantasy football production.
Percentage of routes run per catch:
- 2019: 9.4%
- 2020: 9.9%
- 2021: 13.1%
- 2022: 13.6%
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Williams at His ADP?
Williams is a good example of the “everyone has a price” theory. I didn’t enter the summer with much interest in drafting Williams and locking him into my starting lineup. I didn’t want to deal with his volatility from an early pick. I can just build a DFS lineup around him in the weeks I really like him and call it a day.
That’s what I thought … in May. But now, as we sit here today, he’s being drafted outside of the top 25 at the position, and I’m actually ahead of ADP. Now is the time to buy. Not because I have some sort of elevated confidence that this is one of those seasons he puts it all together, but because it doesn’t have to be.
Williams is being drafted around receivers like Michael Pittman Jr. and Chris Godwin, both of whom carry significant risk due to their quarterback situations. From a Flex perspective, he’s in the same neighborhood as Miles Sanders, Cam Akers, and Rachaad White, all of whom carry significant risk due to overall offensive ineptitude.
You’re no longer paying up for a steak and crossing your fingers that the chef got it right. You now have a coupon. That’s a free roll to a degree: Maybe the steak is great, and you’re thrilled, but if not, your investment wasn’t enough to ruin your day.