New England Patriots tight end Mike Gesicki flashed some upside while in Miami but was really only targeted when there was no one else. Gesicki now looks for a fresh start in New England. What is his 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Mike Gesicki’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Gesicki received a ton of hype as a rookie. He’s an incredible athlete with 95th percentile or better speed, burst, and agility. The knock on him was he was a t-shirt and shorts superstar. Gesicki would look amazing during practices, but it didn’t translate onto the field.
As a rookie, Gesicki caught 22 passes for 202 yards. He averaged 2.9 PPR fantasy points per game, well off the fantasy radar.
Over his next three seasons, Gesicki was more relevant in fantasy than not. He averaged 9.1 ppg in 2019, 10.6 ppg in 2020, and 9.7 ppg in 2021. His target share increased each year, maxing out at 18.6% in 2021.
Despite Gesicki seemingly performing well, he was still propped up by the Dolphins’ lack of offensive weapons. Last season, we saw this in full force.
The Dolphins traded for Tyreek Hill and signed Trent Sherfield and Cedrick Wilson. While the latter two may not seem to matter much, they are still receivers who combined to command more targets than Gesicki.
Last season, with the offense running through Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Gesicki’s target share dropped to 9.7%, 30th at the position. He ran a route on just 56.3% of the Dolphins’ pass plays and saw a target on a paltry 15.8% of his routes run.
As a result of his usage, Gesicki was only a fantasy-relevant option when he scored. From Weeks 1-17, Gesicki did not surpass 5.7 fantasy points in a game in which he did not score.
Should You Draft Mike Gesicki This Year?
With no deliberate role in the Dolphins’ offense, Gesicki and the team moved on after the season. While Gesicki should see a bigger role in New England, there are plenty of concerns regarding his fantasy value.
In Miami, Gesicki was competing with Durham Smythe for tight end snaps, and he couldn’t fully win that battle. The Patriots may not use Hunter Henry like the Chargers did, but Henry is way better than Smythe. Gesicki is unlikely to dominate snaps. In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he again saw a sub-50% snap share.
Then there’s the matter of the pass catchers. The Patriots don’t have the strongest group of receivers, but they have a lot of them. Gesicki will undoubtedly be behind JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker in the target hierarchy. He might be behind Kendrick Bourne, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Henry as well.
All of this is to say there are a lot of ways Gesicki fails and not many in which he succeeds from a fantasy perspective.
Gesicki’s ADP sits at TE26, No. 192 overall. So, he’s not being taken in standard-sized 12-team leagues. I have Gesicki ranked at TE24, right in line with the consensus. But outside of extremely deep leagues, there’s just no reason for more than 14-16 tight ends to be drafted.
Anyone outside the top 20 is almost certainly not opening the season on many fantasy rosters. Fantasy managers do not need to concern themselves with Gesicki in 2023 drafts.
