With premium talent so hard to come by, Miami Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki is one of the most athletic and underrated players at his position. Possessing all the skills to be a dominant threat on the field, he now finds himself in a rather crowded room of pass catchers. As he heads into the 2021 NFL season with an increased ADP due to expectations, should Gesicki’s fantasy football outlook scare off fantasy managers looking for a top-10 option?
Mike Gesicki’s fantasy outlook for 2021
When you look at players in intriguing situations in 2021, Gesicki is close to the top of the list. Coming off the board at TE15 in PPR formats in 2020, he proved to be of tremendous value to your team.
The former Penn State star saw the second-most targets on the team with 85 (16.3% share). Gesicki hauled in 53 receptions (62%) for 703 yards and 6 touchdowns. Playing nearly 70% of snaps from the slot, he greatly benefited from the Dolphins’ lack of pass-catching options.
Gesicki more than outperformed his ADP for fantasy and finished the season as the TE7 overall in PPR formats and ninth in points per game with 10.6 PPR. The question remains, however, did it seem that way if you rostered him?
Out of Gesicki’s 15 games, he was a top-12 tight end only four times (26.6%) — 22nd amongst the position. But, when he hit, he hit big. In fact, Gesicki scored 20+ fantasy points in three contests, including back-to-back games in Weeks 13 and 14.
Nevertheless, in eight of his 15 games, Gesicki finished as the TE18 or worse, including four outside the top 24. This, on a team where DeVante Parker led the team with just 793 yards, and RB Myles Gaskin was third behind Gesicki with 388.
Gesicki enters 2021 in his contract year with a pair of new offensive coordinators, flanked by three first-round drafted receivers, and having watched the Dolphins draft a TE with pick No. 81. Not to mention the much-anticipated improvement (and health) of Tua Tagovailoa.
Could Gesicki end up as a TE1 again in 2021? Yes, but there are a lot of questions and potential landmines scattered in his fantasy outlook.
Mike Gesicki’s fantasy projection
The two main questions for Gesicki are, how does he fit into the progression, and can Tua get everyone involved?
When looking at the last five games with Tua under center, Gesicki was incredible. He had 3 touchdowns on 23 receptions (34 targets) for 254 yards. That’s a 16-game pace of over 1,000 yards and 12 scores.
Meanwhile, wide receivers only saw 58% of the targets. It seemed that the favorite play inside the red zone was a fade to Gesicki. 7 of his 15 red-zone targets came in those five games alone, resulting in 3 touchdowns.
Nevertheless, you don’t go out and sign Will Fuller and draft Tua’s former teammate Jaylen Waddle and not plan on featuring them in the offense. After all, it’s not as if the Dolphins head into 2021 with a vast number of vacated targets. Only 12.6% (69 targets) from last season are unaccounted for, which is 23rd in the NFL.
The volume is there. And this season, Tua is not looking over his shoulder for a beaded Ryan Fitzpatrick to take his job. Even if we just use the final five games, including Week 16, where he was benched, Tua averaged 38.6 passing attempts. It’s well within reason to see him attempt 600 passes in 2021. Even with Gesicki finishing fourth on the team with a target share of 14%, that’s 84 targets. In 2020, that would have placed him 13th.
While early in the process, Gesicki is projected for around 80-85 targets with 50-55 receptions, 650 yards, and 6 touchdowns.
Mike Gesicki’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Gesicki is currently being selected as the TE8 with an ADP of 85.4 in PPR formats. In superflex formats, where quarterbacks have an increased value, he falls to 88.3. However, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Gesicki is the TE11 with a 112.6 ADP.
Should you draft Mike Gesicki in 2021 for fantasy?
Anywhere you turn, the whole industry seems down on the Dolphins’ passing game, as many call it a make-it-or-break-it year for Tua, which in my opinion, is unfair.
I believe Gesicki is going about where he should be in drafts, but whether or not the upside is there from 2020 is the issue. After tying for the most end-zone targets among TEs in 2020, is there room to grow? Not likely, when you add in two very capable receivers.
It took Gesicki leading the Dolphins’ pass catchers in targets, yards, touchdowns, and first downs from Tua to be the TE7 last season. In 2021, I am going all or nothing at tight end. Either I am drafting a top-five option like Travis Kelce or Darren Waller, or I’m waiting for someone with a high upside. In that case, I’d look at someone like Tyler Higbee now that Gerald Everett is in Seattle, Logan Thomas, or even Jonnu Smith.
Gesicki will likely finish close to the top-10 TEs in fantasy this season. Yet, that might say more about the position than it does about him.
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Tommy Garrett is a writer for Pro Football Network covering the NFL and fantasy football and a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.