Miami Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki is coming off his third consecutive mediocre season. Gesicki has been a consistently useful fantasy tight end but has never been anything close to a difference-maker. With the Dolphins adding several new offensive pieces, what is Gesicki’s fantasy football outlook and ADP in fantasy drafts for the 2022 season?
Mike Gesicki’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Gesicki is entering his fifth professional season in 2022. As with 99% of tight ends, he did nothing as a rookie. Over the past three seasons, though, he’s been a useful fantasy tight end.
In 2019, Gesicki averaged 9.1 PPR fantasy points per game, followed by 10.6 ppg in 2020, and 9.7 ppg in 2021. Your random back-end TE1 is around 10 ppg, and that’s what Gesicki has been. One positive trend for Gesicki has been his steadily increasing target share. It’s gone up every year of his career and topped out at 18.6% last season.
Another positive is the way the Dolphins deploy Gesicki. He’s not your typical underneath catch-and-fall-down tight end. His average depth of target was sixth at the position. He’s also not really a TE; Gesicki ran a route on 79% of his team’s pass plays and lined up in the slot 62.5% of the time. He’s really a glorified wide receiver eligible at tight end.
The bad news is despite all of this, Gesicki has been just a guy at the position. His numbers are replaceable. You can stream your way to 10 ppg just chasing touchdowns. Gesicki is an incredible athlete, but those skills just haven’t translated as well as many fantasy managers hoped.
How the Dolphins’ depth chart impacts Mike Gesicki’s fantasy projection for the season
Here’s the problem for Gesicki’s fantasy outlook in 2022. Last season, Gesicki was third on his team in target share. Outside of Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins lacked playmakers. And yet, Gesicki only managed a high TE2 finish.
This season, the competition got a whole lot stiffer. In addition to Waddle being another year more experienced, the Dolphins added Tyreek Hill, Cedrick Wilson Jr., and Chase Edmonds. The only relevant member of the passing attack they lost is DeVante Parker.
There are only so many targets to go around. Tua Tagovailoa should improve, but can he support three fantasy-relevant pass catchers?
There may be fewer targets available for Gesicki in 2022
Hill, Waddle, and Wilson are going to combine for about 60% of Tagovailoa’s pass attempts. In 2021, Dolphins running backs accounted for just a 16% target share. With Edmonds in town, it’s hard to see that not pushing 20%. That leaves just 20% of the team’s remaining targets for every other player, including Gesicki.
The Dolphins targeted the TE position 29% of the time last season, the second-highest rate in the league. That number is likely to plummet in 2022.
While Gesicki will probably score more than the two touchdowns he scored last season, his receptions and yardage should decrease. Fantasy managers can once again treat Gesicki as a fine late-round tight end target, but he’s not someone you should necessarily be looking to draft.
Gesicki’s ADP for 2022
Gesicki is being drafted around 105th overall. He’s going as the TE11/12. There’s no need to sugarcoat this: Gesicki’s ADP is entirely too high.
What exactly is going on here? Gesicki has never averaged more than 10.6 ppg in a season. I wouldn’t even consider that his ceiling. It’s far lower than that.
With the improvements at wide receiver, a true pass-catching running back, and a more offensive-minded head coach, Gesicki will be on the field less. And when he is on the field, he’s going to be blocking more. I don’t see any realistic path to Gesicki posting TE1 numbers this season. He’s not even a high TE2 for me. Pass on Gesicki at his ADP.