The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ ability to ink WR Mike Evans to another contract extension secures his role as Baker Mayfield’s top option for the foreseeable future, which should have fantasy football managers very excited about his 2024 outlook.
Can fantasy managers realistically project Evans for an 11th straight season with 1,000 yards receiving in 2024?
Mike Evans’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 252.4
- Receptions: 75.5
- Receiving Yards: 1118.1
- Receiving TDs: 10.7
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
One thing we have plenty of on Evans is data, thanks to his 10 straight 1,000-yard receiving campaigns to start his NFL career. He has finished with 70-80 receptions six of his 10 years in the league, finished with with 1,000-1,200 receiving yards in six seasons in the league, and scored 10+ receiving TDs five times.
Data projection models can be tough to trust when we are discussing players with small sample sizes or outlier seasons to skew the data. Yet, in the case of Evans, this projection aligns very well with my expectations for his 2024 fantasy projection.
Should You Draft Evans This Year?
One thing we can take away from Evans’ 2023 campaign is that we have to recalibrate his outlook from his time with Tom Brady under center to how he was utilized with Mayfield at quarterback in this new-look Tampa Bay offense.
Evans actually caught more passes for more yards last season playing with Mayfield than he did in any of the three seasons he played with Brady. This made the demise of Evans’ fantasy value feel a bit premature after a WR7 overall finish in full-PPR formats in 2023.
Mike Evans 2023 Stats
- Targets: 136 (Highest since 2018)
- Receptions: 79 (Highest since 2018)
- Yards: 1,255 (Highest since 2018)
- TDs: 13 (Highest since 2021)
Truth be told, this was the highest fantasy finish for Evans at the position since the 2016 NFL season, where he finished the year as the WR2 with 96 receptions for 1,321 yards and 12 TDs.
Evans’ 79 receptions for 1,255 yards and 13 TDs last year showed the world he can still be a very productive downfield option with 15.9 yards per reception. Additionally, Evans led the league in air yards (1,906) and deep targets (36) while finishing with a very healthy 14.1 average depth of target.
With his contract situation and rapport with Mayfield secure, fantasy managers can confidently believe again in Evans’ insanely high fantasy floor, where he has topped 1,000 yards receiving for all 10 years of his NFL career and has never finished lower than the WR22 in full-PPR formats.
Will Chris Godwin still be around to see 100+ targets? Yes. Could rookie WR Jalen McMillan be a bigger threat than the tertiary options we saw from this Bucs’ offense last year and steal more of the work away from Evans in 2024? Possibly.
Ultimately, Evans has given us no reason whatsoever not to believe in his WR2 fantasy floor with WR1 upside, which makes his ADP as the WR17 off the board very justifiable as a rock-solid option at the back end of the second round or early third round of fantasy drafts this season.
For some additional context, players like Nico Collins, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel Sr. — who are in very crowded offenses — are currently going ahead of Evans in Round 2.
These offenses may have more upside, but Evans’ longevity and role security with Mayfield make him feel like he is still going a bit too low in 2024.