Arguably one of the most frustrating wide receivers in fantasy football gets one more night with the primetime spotlight solely on him as Mike Evans and the Buccaneers take on the New York Giants on Monday Night Football. Evans, who has been up and down more than a roller coaster at Six Flags, has one last chance to impress before Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin returns, and Antonio Brown makes his debut at some point. Knowing the inconsistent play and frustrations he has caused fantasy managers, can they start him on Monday with confidence, or should they be prepared for another letdown? What is Mike Evans’ fantasy outlook moving forward?
Buccaneers WR Mike Evans will be the primary focus with Godwin out for Week 8
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will not have WR Chris Godwin for their Monday Night Football game against the New York Giants. Last week, he broke his left index finger against the Raiders and is still wearing a cast after having surgery to fix it. According to ESPN Adam Schefter, the initial diagnosis for Godwin was four to six weeks on the sidelines, but once they added the pins during surgery, the timeline was reduced to around two weeks. With that timeline in mind, he is already considered “50-50” to play in Week 9 against the New Orleans Saints. He has already missed Week 2 with a concussion and Weeks 4-5 with a hamstring injury.
The Buccaneers will be relying on Evans as the primary option, along with help from Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, and Rob Gronkowski. They all have had solid games in recent weeks as the offense continues to build chemistry.
The absence of Godwin gives Evans his “must-start” fantasy status
While missing Godwin is less than ideal for the Buccaneers, it’s fantastic news for people with Mike Evans in fantasy. When both have been on the field, Evans has virtually disappeared.
Yes, Evans has scored six touchdowns this season. But in seven games, he’s finished with two or fewer receptions four times, and when Chris Godwin is active, his stats plummet to the level of guys who aren’t start-worthy in fantasy. Evans is averaging 1.5 catches for 12.75 yards in the four games he’s played with Godwin this year. Week 7 was another prime example where Evans saw only two targets, catching both for 37 yards, even though Tom Brady threw the ball 45 times.
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When you take Godwin out of the lineups, Evans is back to being a top-10 fantasy option. In the three games in which Godwin was out this season, Evans has seen a minimum of eight targets, and he has scored in all three of those matchups, clearing 100 yards in two of them.
Evans and the Buccaneers WRs also get a great matchup against a poor Giants’ pass defense, ranking 27th in DVOA. They do have James Bradberry, who can shut down a receiver and has often done so this season. The good news for Mike Evans here is that he’s been getting time in the slot, whereas Bradberry doesn’t follow receivers into the slot. If they keep Evans out wide, then he will see a healthy dose of the cornerback who has allowed just 0.23 fantasy points per route and a low 59% completion rate when targeted. Bringing him inside could help to shield him and get Mike Evans into more advantageous matchups.
New York ranks second in Defense Points Against Consistency (DPAC) with a score of 24.94, meaning they are consistently giving up massive amounts of fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. So far, in 2020, the Giants have given up an average of 39.98 points to the position, which is 23rd in the NFL. I would expect Mike Evans to have the majority of these in Week 8.
How safe is Mike Evans to start in fantasy in Week 8?
Safe is a relative term when it comes to talking about Evans’s ability to appear and then disappear again. Through seven weeks, Mike Evans’ consistency score of 3.27 ranks 38th out of qualified wide receivers.
However, Mike Evans’ fantasy outlook is high this week without Godwin. Averaging over six receptions and 86 yards, Evans has finished inside of the top five in the position two out of three games, and while he finished as WR24 in Week 5, he did see nine targets.
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The question is what to do with Mike Evans moving forward as we know once he has competition on the field, he disappears. He already has to deal with Godwin and will now play with one of the best wide receivers of the last decade in Antonio Brown.
Brady’s lack of a vertical passing game puts a strain on Evans’ upside, and frankly, it’s a surprise Evans has as many as six receiving touchdowns, which is what has ensured he has had any real fantasy value to date.
What is Mike Evans’ fantasy outlook moving forward, and should you trade him?
This concept was recently talked about by PFN’s Matt Williamson when he used his fantasy football trade analyzer to look at the value of Evans moving forward, and I completely agree with him. You should be trying to trade away Mike Evans right now in fantasy, as his name value can likely bring some return, especially if he has a big game tonight, which could be his last opportunity to do so moving forward.
However, don’t give him away out of frustration. There is no reason to take 20 cents on the dollar when what you would be getting in return has a significantly lower ceiling than Evans does each week. At that point, he is worth more to you than what you are getting in return so long as you have a decent supply of aspirin lying around for the headaches that will follow when making start-sit decisions.
Between the addition of new Buccaneers WR Antonio Brown, the resurgence of 80%-vintage Gronk, and the ability to run the ball with both Ronald Jones or Leonard Fournette, there is only so much value that Evans can bring if he is not stretching the field. He will never compete with the five of six other guys who all work in a similar area of the field, and Brady isn’t going to play like Jameis Winston and chuck the ball 50 yards downfield hoping his wide receiver can make a play for him.
Mike Evans’ fantasy outlook is good in Week 8; he could even be a “Captain” play in DFS. But after this game, work the wire and see if someone is willing to bite on the name. Maybe they are unconvinced of Brown’s return or Godwin’s health. If you can get a solid offer, I think you would be smart to unload the frustration.
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Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.