As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the dynasty rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of Mike Evans.
Mike Evans’ Dynasty Outlook and Value
What a wild year for Evans. If you ask the average fantasy manager whether Evans was a bust in 2022, nearly all of them would say he was. So, was he? The answer is: kind of?
On the season, Evans averaged 15 fantasy points per game and finished as the WR13. While that was below his redraft ADP, it wasn’t by any meaningful amount. From a pure points-per-game perspective (holy alliteration!), Evans was just fine. However, a deeper dive shows that Evans was, in fact, a colossal bust.
Although he averaged 15 ppg, Evans scored 35% of his fantasy points in two games. So, for two games, you got an elite matchup-winning WR1. For the other 13 games, however, Evans averaged 11.3 ppg — WR4 numbers.
There’s a case to be made that no player in fantasy has been more reliable over the past decade than Evans. While he’s never been a truly elite WR1, he’s never failed. Evans has averaged between 15.0 and 18.8 ppg in all but two seasons of his career. Those two seasons saw 14.2 and 13.4 ppg, which are hardly disasters.
By now, we’re all keenly aware of Evans’ nine-season streak of 1,000 receiving yards. He’s as safe as it gets. The ironic part is the theory behind Evans’ spike in value ahead of the 2022 season was proven correct.
His volume went up, and the 19.7% target share he saw was his highest with Tom Brady. Although we prefer at least 25% from WR1s, when your quarterback breaks the single-season pass attempts record, raw volume is good enough.
MORE: Dynasty Rankings 2023 — Top Fantasy Options at Wide Receiver
The reason Evans struggled from a fantasy perspective was purely touchdown-based. After scoring 14 times in 2021 and 13 times in 2020, Evans found the end zone just six times in 2022… and three of them came in Week 17.
Evans’ dynasty value has been consistent for years. But for the first time ever, there’s a whole heap of uncertainty.
First, we have Evans’ contract situation. He’s entering the last year of his deal in 2023. He’s also going to be 30 years old this season.
Evans likely still has at least 2-3 quality years left. He also has a skill set that should decline gradually rather than fall off a cliff. I can see him being fantasy relevant until age 33/34. Yet, that brings us to the second issue.
Brady is now finally retired, except for real this time. So, who will quarterback the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2022? Will Tampa Bay sign a veteran and take one more shot at a title? Or will they trade their older players and blow it up?
That brings us to our third issue: Where will Evans play in 2023? It’s possible Evans signs another extension this offseason. But the most likely scenario is he plays out the final year of his deal and looks for a 2-3 year contract in March 2024. Where Evans ends up and what type of role he has will heavily impact his fantasy value.
Mike Evans’ Fantasy Ranking
For fantasy managers, Evans is the type of receiver you don’t want to trade for if you don’t already have him, but you can’t really move him if you do. You’re kind of just stuck with him. And I think that’s okay.
Evans should remain a WR2 regardless of his quarterback for at least another couple of years. Given his age and team situation, he’s more of a WR3 in dynasty, though, which is exactly where we have him — WR29 (No. 77 overall) in our dynasty Superflex rankings.
Evans is likely to outproduce that ranking in 2023, but his long-term value is tenuous, at best. Given the Bucs’ offensive situation, unless Evans is traded to a superior offense, I’m probably not looking to take him in dynasty startup drafts.