Arizona Cardinals WR Michael Wilson was a third-round rookie in 2023, and while the usage wasn’t there, he did average 14.9 yards per catch while ranking 10th among qualified receivers in average depth of target. There is plenty of optimism surrounding this offensive environment, so could that result in a Year 2 breakout for Wilson at essentially no cost to fantasy football managers?
Michael Wilson’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 134 (89 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 45
- Receiving Yards: 674
- Receiving TDs: 4
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Wilson This Year?
With Kyler Murray under center and a pair of emerging stars in the passing game, expectations are high in Arizona. On the whole, that’s good news for Wilson.
Year one Michael Wilson was impressive……year two will be 🔥#BirdGang pic.twitter.com/Jz3QO2ufFn
— Bird Droppings (@BirdmanofAZ) July 15, 2024
I think Wilson is a strong bet to be the WR2 in this upward-trending offense, but we do have to acknowledge the lack of role clarity. The Cardinals signed Zay Jones to a one-year deal this offseason, and he’s essentially an experienced version of Wilson.
Those two are fighting behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. Behind them is Greg Dortch, a player whose raw talent may not be on that level, but his 6.3 career aDOT suggests that the slot and short-yardage role is his to lose.
Is there enough meat on this bone? Will Arizona fully lean into a pass-first philosophy (31st in pass rate over expectation last season) as a result of health and franchise buy-in?
There are questions that we have, ones that are unlikely to be answered before your draft takes place. While I like Wilson’s size profile and the trajectory of Arizona’s offense, packaging him as someone who has a chance to skirt onto the Flex radar weekly isn’t something I’m comfortable doing.
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We’re comfortable in labeling McBride as a top-five tight end, and that made the WR2 role (Wilson’s best-case scenario) largely unproductive last season. The average PPR points-per-game finish in the five offenses with an elite tight end last season was WR54. The majority of them finished outside of the top 60 at the position.
Being drafted in this range are the Patriots’ options — Ja’Lynn Polk and DeMario Douglas — both of whom could lead a bad team in targets without the aid of an injury.
Darnell Mooney and Ricky Pearsall are also in this neighborhood. They’re both blocked from significant work, but they do play in an offense with more traditional passing upside should they earn consistent looks.
Realistically, there’s no bad pick in the final stages of your draft. Wilson’s frame gives him the type of scoring equity that I like to target for a bye-week filler. He’s a fine addition to your bench at his ADP; just make sure you’re doing it with the understanding that his path of consistent value isn’t in the cards outside of an injury ahead of him on the depth chart.
If he were to go undrafted in your league, Wilson would be on the shortlist of names I’d be tracking through September. If he consistently gets on the field and is used as the primary field stretcher next to Harrison, Wilson could be a savvy addition, even if the numbers have yet to be produced.