As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas’ fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Michael Thomas’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
Rarely has an extraordinary career come undone so completely and prematurely as what we’ve witnessed with Michael Thomas. Through his age-26 season, Thomas had compiled a blistering 470-5,512-32 regular-season receiving line.
For context, through last season, only one other player drafted in 2016 (Tyreek Hill) has posted more receptions, more receiving yards, and more receiving touchdowns for their career. They all needed seven years to achieve their totals. Thomas needed only four.
Thomas was on pace to becoming an all-time great. In his third campaign, he broke the record for the highest WR completion percentage in history (85.0%). In his fourth campaign, he led the league in receptions (149) and receiving yards (1,725) en route to winning AP Offensive Player of the Year, making him only the second wide receiver to win this award and the first since Jerry Rice in 1993.
Then it all fell apart — first gradually, and then with a mounting sense of disappointment, and finally with resignation that he’ll never be great again. An ankle injury limited Thomas to seven regular-season contests in 2020, during which he posted a still highly respectable 40-438-0 receiving line.
Projected out to a full season, the hobbled receiver was on pace for a 91-999-0 showing. Besides the lack of scores, he still looked like a No. 1 receiver.
But offseason ankle surgery and setbacks sidelined him for the entire 2021 season.
With relatively low public expectations entering 2022, Thomas — who was now playing alongside rookie Chris Olave and the still highly targeted Jarvis Landry — managed to assemble a 16-171-3 receiving line in his first three outings.
That put him on pace for a 91-969-17 receiving line. Of course, that TD clip wasn’t sustainable, but Thomas was unquestionably a 100-catch, 1,000-yard threat despite his nearly two-year layoff.
This is critically important context because as easy as it is to dismiss the 30-year-old Thomas, he’s remained a must-start fantasy WR when healthy. The problem is that he can’t stay healthy. A foot injury ended his 2022 campaign after those three games. Assuredly, he’s one of the biggest injury risks among all fantasy wideouts. We cannot ignore that painful track record.
Yet, through it all, Thomas remains a talented football player. A presumed offseason upgrade at QB (Derek Carr) and the Saints’ decision not to upgrade their receiving corps makes Thomas the team’s No. 2 wide receiver, with a shot at rivaling Olave some weeks.
Yes, that’s an optimistic projection. It assumes Thomas can stay on the field. His over/under for games played this season is around 7.5.
So while there’s no simple way to project his 2023 production, a 15% decline in fantasy production could still put Thomas on pace for a roughly 70-800 campaign with a handful of scores. That makes him relevant as long as he’s active.
Should You Draft Michael Thomas This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Thomas with an ADP of WR49. Our PFN Consensus Rankings have him at WR45. For context, before exiting for the season after Week 3 last year, he was the overall WR9.
Carr and Michael Thomas getting the connection going early
📺: #KCvsNO on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/bBFpXevVUR pic.twitter.com/mp1138WG28— NFL (@NFL) August 13, 2023
Now, I’m not predicting he’s going to be the WR9 in points per game this year. Nor am I predicting that he’ll finish in the top 20.
While risk-averse fantasy managers should probably steer clear of Thomas, those who embrace savvy risk-taking should lean in. Because while his overall ADP might be reasonable, Thomas’ per-game fantasy production likely will be comfortably above that projection.
If you have the bench space (or an IR spot) to safely stash Thomas for weeks at a time, then he’s too tempting to pass up in the ninth or 10th round, where his ADP suggests managers draft him.
Carr historically has utilized top-heavy receiving corps. Whether that’s been more a function of his offensive schemes, his personnel, or personal tastes is debatable. But with the overachieving Rashid Shaheed serving as the WR3, there’s an opening for Thomas to garner 7+ targets each week he takes the field.
Mid-to-late-round WRs aren’t supposed to be that heavily targeted. Thomas’ depressed value is both warranted and a buy opportunity . . . as long as your roster-management approach aligns with the risks that come with drafting him.