Once viewed as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL and fantasy football, New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas is one of the more intriguing picks as his 2022 fantasy outlook has one of the widest variances of anyone. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Thomas’ fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Michael Thomas’ fantasy outlook for 2022
They say time flies when you are having fun. If true, I can only imagine how slowly time has passed for fantasy managers who have expressed belief in Thomas and have waited for his return.
That’s not to say there is no reason for this belief. Thomas, when at his best, is one of the top-tier receivers in football. His historic season in 2019 showed this, recording 149 receptions on 185 targets for 1,725 yards with nine touchdowns as the WR1 (23.4 PPR/game). He blew away the competition. Thomas was sensational with Drew Brees. But that was also three years ago.
When Thomas was healthy in 2020 from Weeks 10-14, he commanded a 34.6% target share, catching 32 of 44 targets for 370 yards. This is noteworthy because four of those games came while Brees was out with his thumb injury and Taysom Hill started. Unfortunately, Thomas’ ankle injuries persisted. He would be placed on the IR in Week 15 of that season and has yet to step on a football field since.
Thomas’ ankle has continued to be an issue, requiring multiple surgeries — most recently in June of 2021. He was unable to attend OTAs, but did participate in training camp and has looked like his old self. That’s a win all on its own.
Thomas is one of the wild cards of 2022
Thomas might be the most difficult player to project for 2022 right now. For as great as he can be and has shown, he has arguably the widest variance of possible outcomes. There is a path where he is the WR1 for the Saints, finds quick chemistry with Jameis Winston, and is a WR2 for fantasy. Or Thomas could struggle due to rust and be a flex play. Heck, he could reinjure his ankle in Week 1 and miss the rest of the season.
I would not feel comfortable with Thomas as my WR1 in fantasy. Preferably he would be a WR3 on my roster. At that point, the upside of a healthy Thomas and his high-volume upside in PPR makes the risk worth it. If Thomas comes out, sees a 24%+ target share, and looks like he didn’t miss a beat, the value injected into your starting roster might be the largest of any player going outside the top four rounds. Does this happen? Flip a coin as your guess is as good as mine.
How the Saints depth chart impacts Michael Thomas’ fantasy projection for the season
While he is not Brees, Winston looked solid last year. He was a completely different player than we saw in his final year in Tampa Bay, having undergone a “QB Masterclass” from Brees and former coach Sean Payton.
The former No. 1 overall pick out of Florida State got off to an impressive start, completing 59% of his passes and posting 1,170 yards, 14 touchdowns, and just three interceptions in the first seven games. Included in this stretch was arguably the most surprising result of the season. In Week 1, the Saints knocked off the Packers, and Winston set the record for the fewest passing yards in a 5+ TD game (148).
Unfortunately, in Week 8, he tore multiple ligaments in his knee, including his ACL, while facing his former team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After re-signing in the offseason, all signs point towards Winston being back for Week 1. Last season, Winston led all QBs in fantasy points per dropback (0.64) but was also No. 6 in passer rating (102.8) and had the lowest turnover-worthy play rate of his career (3%). While I do not believe he is in the running for the QB1, Winston is a dark horse to finish as a QB1 in fantasy.
Thomas has help on the perimeter this year
Thomas, while expected to be the No. 1 target, will not be alone. Not only did the Saints add Chris Olave in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, but hometown wideout Jarvis Landry signed following his release from the Browns. Olave is a smooth route runner but brings legitimate home-run upside. It’s a fantastic pairing with Thomas.
Landry, for all the talk of him being washed up, was a high-volume receiver last year, posting a 24.9% target share in Cleveland. Constantly undervalued for his impact on the field, Landry has yet to finish a season outside the WR3 range in fantasy (minimum 12 games). Still going behind Olave in most formats, Landry has an easy path to be the No. 1 should Thomas not be ready. He could be a steal in 2022 for fantasy
Thomas’ ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 75, Thomas is coming off the boards as the WR32 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him at the end of the beginning of the seventh round in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 Fantasy Football rankings, Thomas is a noticeable chunk higher as the WR23 and the 52nd overall ranked player. While PFN’s are a consensus, that is nearly identical to where I have Thomas as my WR22 and 49th player overall.
Thomas’ ADP feels like it is lagging behind what you should expect on draft day. To me, there is still the impact of when Thomas was out baked into his current ADP. From what I have seen in the mocks I have been a part of, and we have run with our Discord, it’s far more likely Thomas is selected in the WR22-WR25 range than into the 30s.
It has been reported Thomas has been dealing with a “little bit of a hamstring” issue, but that shouldn’t come as a surprise. He hasn’t been on the field in a while, and as an “older” player, soft tissue injuries can occur more frequently when returning to the field. That is something to consider, along with the slow but steady workload Thomas will see as he gets his conditioning back in order.
At WR23, Thomas is already someone I have no issue drafting as my WR2/3. As the WR32 in the seventh round, that’s stealing. At that point, there is minimal risk involved. I personally would plan to target earlier, but if you want to play chicken with your league to squeeze out an extra round or so of value, it could pay off.