After an unconvincing first fantasy football season, what is the outlook for Michael Pittman Jr. in 2021? With 40 receptions from 61 targets for 503 receiving yards and 1 touchdown as a rookie, it was not the Year 1 fantasy managers expected from the former USC Trojans receiver. Will Pittman prove to be of value with his fantasy outlook and ADP in 2021?
Michael Pittman Jr.’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Pittman appeared in 48 games in his collegiate career at USC. He finished with 171 receptions for 2,519 receiving yards and 19 touchdowns. Pittman’s career receptions rank 12th in USC history.
Pittman displayed the ability to win deep as a Trojan, but he surprisingly only accumulated 510 receiving air yards as a rookie. T.Y. Hilton led all Colts receivers with 1,166 yards, followed by Zach Pascal’s 772. Will this change for Pittman with Carson Wentz now in Indianapolis?
Carson Wentz and Frank Reich reunited
The retirement of eight-time Pro Bowler Philip Rivers opened the door for Colts head coach Frank Reich to be reunited with Wentz in Indianapolis. Reich was the Eagles offensive coordinator for Wentz’s first two NFL seasons in 2016 and 2017.
In addition to working with Reich, Wentz has also worked with Colts wide receivers coach Mike Groh and Press Taylor. As a reminder, Wentz was having an MVP-caliber season in 2017 before his season-ending knee injury. As a result, Wentz had to watch on the sidelines as backup Nick Foles led Philadelphia to a win in Super Bowl LII.
Reich announced in early August that Wentz could miss the first two months of the season after electing to undergo left foot surgery to repair a broken metatarsal. The veteran quarterback could miss anywhere from five to 12 weeks. Wentz could return for the season opener or miss the first seven weeks of the 2021 season. A more definitive timeframe will emerge once Wentz begins rehab.
Wentz has the arm strength to attack defenses vertically, but how many targets could Pittman realistically see in 2021?
T.Y. Hilton is still here
Hilton had a mixed year with the Colts in 2020. He finished with only 56 receptions, 762 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns. Yet, Hilton averaged 67.5 receiving yards per game and scored 4 touchdowns in the six games he saw 6+ targets. Hilton led the Colts in targets (93) last season, as he has in all but two of his nine years in the league.
Strong Colts’ offensive line
The Colts return four starters from what has been one of the NFL’s top offensive lines over the last few seasons. Indianapolis has adequate depth at the tackle position and also inside at center and guard. The only question mark is how they fare at left tackle. If the combination of Sam Tevi and Eric Fisher struggle, it could disrupt the passing game of the Colts, especially downfield.
The running backs in the Colts’ offense will also command a reasonable target share. Despite a slow start in his rookie season, Jonathan Taylor finished as the RB6 in PPR formats. He is not the only threat for targets, as Nyheim Hines will also command targets as a receiver out of the backfield.
Fantasy projection
Pittman projects for around 80 targets, 48 receptions, 700 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns in 2021.
Michael Pittman Jr.’s ADP
Pittman is readily available in the 11th round when you review redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker, with an ADP of 129.8. In pay-to-play fantasy formats, such as the National Fantasy Championship, Pittman has an ADP of 105.72 as the WR43 overall. Meanwhile, his ADP in PPR formats on Sleeper is 113.9.
Should you draft Pittman Jr. in 2021?
Pittman isn’t a receiver you should aggressively target in fantasy drafts at his ADP. He had a disappointing rookie season and finds himself in an eerily similar situation in 2021. Therefore, Pittman can be viewed as a WR5 in PPR formats.