Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. was a very popular breakout candidate last season. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out as expected. Can he have the season in 2023 many thought he’d have in 2022? What is Pittman’s fantasy football projection?
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Michael Pittman Jr.’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Pittman was firmly atop the list of “my guys” in 2022. He was my target in the third round of every snake draft. I tried to get him in every auction. I wanted all the Pittman I could get.
There was a lot to like about Pittman following his breakout 2021 campaign. In a season where he dealt with awful quarterback play from Carson Wentz, MPJ caught 88 passes for 1,082 yards and six touchdowns.
Ahead of the 2022 season, the Colts seemingly upgraded at quarterback to Matt Ryan, who came with a 15-year track record of peppering his WR1 with targets.
Pittman’s 2022 ADP admittedly had progression baked into it. Unfortunately, things didn’t play out as I’d hoped. He averaged 13.5 PPR fantasy points per game — a drop of 0.5 ppg from the previous season. While not a total bust with his overall WR21 finish, Pittman wasn’t the value I expected.
Whenever you miss on players, there’s always something to be learned. Sometimes, you see a bad process and are able to refine it. In the case of Pittman, it wasn’t a bad process at all. The evaluation miss wasn’t on Pittman — it was on Ryan.
Everything about Pittman’s role supported the preseason analysis. He led the NFL with a 100% route participation rate. He led all wide receivers with his 97.1% snap share. He was third in the league in total routes run at 590. And Pittman was very successful as a route runner. He got open. The issue was Ryan.
Undoubtedly past his prime, I did not think Ryan was completely cooked. But his inability to push the ball downfield and really do anything other than check it down torpedoed Pittman’s fantasy outlook.
Pittman’s already low average depth of target cratered to 6.9, 92nd in the league. He saw a paltry five downfield targets all season. The irony is Ryan was actually second in the NFL in deep-ball completion percentage. He just never threw it deep, averaging 1.9 attempts of 20+ air yards per game.
This resulted in Pittman averaging just 1.57 yards per target. So, despite catching 99 passes on 141 targets, he amassed only 925 yards and four touchdowns. Pittman averaged 12.6 and 12.3 yards per reception in each of his first two seasons. That dropped to 9.3 last year. Simply put, it wasn’t Pittman’s fault.
Should You Draft Michael Pittman Jr. This Year?
Although the problem wasn’t Pittman’s ability last season, that doesn’t automatically mean he’s back on the menu in 2023. Ryan may be out.
His replacement may be younger, stronger, fitter, and more talented than any quarterback Pittman has played with. But Anthony Richardson comes with his own set of concerns.
Richardson is considered a very raw quarterback talent. He’s a rushing QB with just one year as a starter under his belt. The ability is definitely there.
It would not surprise me if Richardson became a top quarterback in this league. But for 2023 redraft leagues, fantasy managers aren’t concerned about Richardson’s long-term outlook. They’re concerned about this season.
In general, rookie quarterbacks are not good for wide receiver fantasy production.
While the bigger issue is their inability to support more than one top-40 wide receiver, even if we assume that guy is Pittman, it’s difficult to see a path for Pittman to ascend to the next level.
Last season, Pittman thrived on volume. Although there is a new coaching staff and new offense in place, Alec Pierce profiles more as the downfield threat. So, Pittman once again needs volume. The problem is he’s unlikely to come close to last year’s total targets with a mobile quarterback.
The Colts attempted 604 passes last season. Assuming Richardson starts the entire season, it would be pretty shocking if he even got to 530 pass attempts. I have full confidence that Pittman’s target share will remain elite. But the overall target pie is going down, perhaps by as many as 100.
If Pittman’s target share were to dip at all, we’re looking at a significant decrease in targets. He would have to make up for it in efficiency. That’s not something I’m confident in.
Pittman is currently my WR35. He’s the WR30 by ADP, No. 77 overall. I actually don’t have an issue with where he’s ranked among wide receivers. The issue is more his overall cost is more expensive than the value he is likely to provide.
There’s always the chance Richardson hits the ground running and focuses on his WR1. But in general, I like to avoid wide receivers playing with rookie quarterbacks, even when those quarterbacks are perceived as sure things. Richardson, while immensely gifted, is far from a sure thing.
I’m certainly not out on Pittman, especially given his price this year compared to last. But I’m not actively looking to draft him. He’s the type of player you scoop up at a value if he falls to you. Just don’t take him over players with more plausible upside.