Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. established himself as a dominant target option last season. With a full year of QB Anthony Richardson, could Pittman be even better this year? Is the talented WR a value in fantasy football Best Ball drafts?
Michael Pittman Jr.’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
Back in 2022, there was no wide receiver I wanted to draft more than Pittman. He was “my guy.” So draft him I did, banking on QB Matt Ryan propelling him to WR1 numbers.
#Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. is set to be a free agent this offseason. After a productive year in Indianapolis, he could end up playing elsewhere in 2024.
Where would you like to see him play from a fantasy football standpoint? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/bTH4YLv5rj
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) January 25, 2024
As you may recall, Ryan completely fell off a cliff in 2022. Between Ryan, Sam Ehlinger, and Nick Foles, Pittman couldn’t ever get quality quarterback play. The volume I expected was there. He saw a 25.6% target share and caught 99 passes.
Unfortunately, he was just incredibly inefficient, averaging 9.3 yards per reception. Pittman averaged 13.5 fantasy points per game. He was good enough but not quite what we drafted.
Regrettably, I abandoned my belief in Pittman ahead of the 2023 season. I saw what he looked like with poor quarterback play and wasn’t enthused about the idea of him playing with a raw rookie in Richardson.
Richardson got hurt a month into the season, tying the majority of Pittman’s statistics to QB Gardner Minshew II. However, before Richardson went down, Pittman posted his second-best game of the season, scoring 23.7 fantasy points in Week 1.
During the season, Pittman dominated at the level I expected the year before. He commanded an elite 30.5% target share and was targeted on 28.1% of his routes run. Pittman averaged 15.6 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR14.
What has me so excited about Pittman this season is how much room he has to progress. While Pittman’s volume can’t increase much, he only scored four touchdowns on 109 receptions for 1,152 yards. His expected touchdown total was around seven.
Additionally, there’s the matter of his aDOT (average depth of target). Pittman’s aDOT was 7.9, 86th in the league. He averaged a mere 7.4 yards per target, 63rd in the league.
Pittman is never going to be this downfield specialist, but he can do better than 10.6 yards per reception. In his first two seasons, Pittman averaged 12.6 and 12.3 yards per reception. Even getting back to 12.0 would do wonders for his fantasy output.
Should You Draft Pittman in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Curiously, Pittman’s Best Ball price is several spots lower than where he finished last season. The best explanation I can come up with is this has to do with the uncertainty surrounding his team.
Pittman is an unrestricted free agent. There’s no guarantee he will leave the Colts, but he is likely to test the open market. It’s hard to imagine Pittman ends up in a situation worse than he had in Indianapolis. He should be the WR1 wherever he goes. And if he’s not, then it probably means he’s playing with a really good quarterback who can support two WR1s.
KEEP READING: Best Ball Stacking Strategy
If Pittman signs with the Kansas City Chiefs or Buffalo Bills, his ADP is going to jump. Those drafting now should salivate at the prospect of drafting Pittman outside the top 18 wide receivers.
