The Atlanta Falcons will face the Washington Commanders in Week 17. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB Michael Penix Jr.
Is Michael Penix Jr. Playing in Week 17?
Penix is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Falcons’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Michael Penix Jr. in Week 17?
I thought Penix showed well for himself in the first start of his career, but we are still a ways away from him being fantasy-viable.
That said, Penix completed two-thirds of his passes against the Giants last week and faces a Commanders defense that is bottom seven in both red-zone efficiency and YAC allowed to receivers.
There are a few rookie QBs we are counting on for fantasy production this season. Penix is not there, but I think he can do enough to keep Atlanta’s primary skill options fed.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 17 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Michael Penix Jr.’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 17
As of Sunday morning, Penix is projected to score 10.2 fantasy points in Week 17. This includes 181.5 passing yards, 0.7 passing touchdowns, and 0.2 interceptions. It also includes 0.7 rushing attempts for 2.5 yards and 0 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Commanders' Defense
The Commanders' overall defensive numbers aren't very impressive, but they've shown the ability to perform against lesser units. With Jalen Hurts leaving the Week 16 contest against the Eagles in the first quarter with a concussion, the Commanders capitalized on a matchup against Kenny Pickett.
Washington generated a 76.8 (C) grade against Philadelphia, ranking in the top 10 for just the fifth time all season. The Commanders' other weekly top-10 finishes came against the Browns, Panthers, Bears, and Titans, all of whom rank in the bottom 10 in Defense+ for the season.
Despite Saquon Barkley rushing for over 100 yards in the first quarter, Washington actually posted its second-best rushing success rate (70%) of the season. Over the final three quarters, Barkley accumulated just 41 yards on 22 carries, posting a woeful 18.2% rushing success rate.
Dan Quinn's unit hasn't performed to the level that his Cowboys defenses did from 2021-23, but that's not the fairest comparison, given that this was supposed to be the early stages of a rebuild. The Commanders have at least shown the ability to overwhelm one-dimensional offenses, which is more than they could say in recent seasons.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Michael Penix Jr.’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 7:25 AM ET on Sunday, December 29. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Weekly Consensus Superflex Rankings.
Week 17 QB PPR Rankings
1) Josh Allen | BUF (vs. NYJ)
2) Lamar Jackson | BAL (at HOU)
3) Joe Burrow | CIN (vs. DEN)
4) Jayden Daniels | WAS (vs. ATL)
5) Baker Mayfield | TB (vs. CAR)
6) Sam Darnold | MIN (vs. GB)
7) Kyler Murray | ARI (at LAR)
8) Jordan Love | GB (at MIN)
9) Bo Nix | DEN (at CIN)
10) Jared Goff | DET (at SF)
11) Brock Purdy | SF (vs. DET)
12) Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (at CLE)
13) Matthew Stafford | LAR (vs. ARI)
14) C.J. Stroud | HOU (vs. BAL)
15) Justin Herbert | LAC (at NE)
16) Patrick Mahomes | KC (at PIT)
17) Caleb Williams | CHI (vs. SEA)
18) Aaron Rodgers | NYJ (at BUF)
19) Geno Smith | SEA (at CHI)
20) Bryce Young | CAR (at TB)
21) Cooper Rush | DAL (at PHI)
22) Joe Flacco | IND (at NYG)
23) Russell Wilson | PIT (vs. KC)
24) Michael Penix Jr. | ATL (at WAS)
25) Drake Maye | NE (vs. LAC)
26) Aidan O'Connell | LV (at NO)
27) Tyler Huntley | MIA (at CLE)
28) Mac Jones | JAX (vs. TEN)
29) Kenny Pickett | PHI (vs. DAL)
30) Mason Rudolph | TEN (at JAX)
31) Drew Lock | NYG (vs. IND)
32) Spencer Rattler | NO (vs. LV)
33) Dorian Thompson-Robinson | CLE (vs. MIA)
Falcons at Commanders Trends and Insights
Atlanta Falcons
Team: Atlanta is chasing their first winning season since 2017. Their win on Sunday prevented them from finishing with exactly seven wins for the sixth time in seven seasons.
QB: Michael Penix Jr. wasn’t perfect last week, but he did post a better QB+ grade than Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Aaron Rodgers.
Offense: In Penix’s debut, the Falcons scored 34 points and converted eight-of-14 third downs. In Kirk Cousins's final two starts, the total was 36 points and 11-of-26 on third downs.
Defense: Atlanta has allowed fewer than a point per drive three times this season – Weeks 13, 15, and 16.
Fantasy: Drake London’s EPA per target last week was his fourth-highest of the season.
Betting: Rookie QBs are 16-8-1 ATS (66.7%) on primetime since the beginning of 2022.
Washington Commanders
Team: The Commanders have three three-game win streaks this season – entering this season, they had three such streaks since Christmas of 2020.
QB: There have been two go-ahead TD passes in the final 10 seconds of regulation this season:
- Jayden Daniels in Week 8 vs. the Bears
- Jayden Daniels in Week 16 vs. the Eagles
Offense: During their current three-game winning streak, the Commanders have moved the chains on 25-of-44 third downs (56.8%).
Defense: Over the past two weeks, the Commanders have held their opponents to six-of-27 on third downs (22.2%), but those teams are four of four on fourth downs in those games.
Fantasy: What a difference a QB makes. Terry McLaurin’s on-field target share this season (20.7%) is essentially identical to last season (20.6%), but his production relative to the expectation of those looks has spiked from -4% to +44.3%).
Betting: Washington hit a rough patch in Weeks 10-12 and failed to cover three straight games – they are 9-2-1 ATS otherwise.