As the NFL season approaches, fantasy football is upon us. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Las Vegas Raiders TE Michael Mayer’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Michael Mayer’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
When it comes to their offensive-skill players, Vegas has gone through major changes these past two seasons. In the past few months alone, they moved on from longtime players, QB Derek Carr and TE Darren Waller, with an eye toward bringing in new franchise-elevating players at each of those positions.
Well, the Raiders can check one of those boxes after drafting Michael Mayer early in the second round. The 22-year-old Notre Dame product dominated in most of his three collegiate campaigns. As one of the top TE prospects this year, he slides into a nearly ideal fantasy role.
True, the Raiders’ offense is as top-heavy as they come, with Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams nearly guaranteed to garner a lion’s share of touches — when healthy. And “health” might be the key.
Last year, Jacobs earned 393 touches, and based on my data models, is a major regression and/or injury risk in 2023. Meanwhile, the nearly 31-year-old Adams can’t realistically replicate last year’s production, in which he netted a whopping 32% target share.
Granted, Jakobi Meyers’ arrival might generate a more balanced passing attack. But in fairness, he might simply absorb the departing Mack Hollins’ share.
And while Hunter Renfrow might rebound and rookie WR Tre Tucker could make some noise, Vegas’ offense still has plenty of room for another new face to step up.
The Raiders signed Austin Hooper as a stop-gap, but he’ll likely give way early on to Mayer, who should eventually play at least a Waller-lite role. To be clear, Mayer doesn’t possess Waller’s speed and agility, but he was drafted to be “the guy” at tight end for years to come.
On that note, Meyers is accustomed to playing with TEs like Ryan Izzo, Jonnu Smith, and a mostly underutilized Hunter Henry. Mayer eventually should be on another level, and that could begin in Year 1.
As a safety valve and goal-line target, I’m betting on plenty of volume for the rookie Mayer. His realistic mid-range projections are roughly 55 catches for 525 yards and four touchdowns. The biggest question is how quickly he overtakes Hooper.
Should You Draft Michael Mayer This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Mayer with an ADP of TE31, which seems too conservative. True, he hasn’t earned anything substantial yet. Perhaps most fantasy managers are locking in more proven producers, even in larger leagues (such as Best Ball) that might require one to dig deeper for high-upside talent.
🔟➡️8️⃣7️⃣@JimmyG_10 | @MMayer1001 pic.twitter.com/chdM8IvuBG
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) July 29, 2023
That’s the thing about Mayer. He has loads of upside. The question is not whether he’ll become the Raiders’ multi-year starting TE. The question is, “How soon?”
Operating in one of the league’s worst defenses and on the assumption Jacobs won’t be able to help carry this offense as much as he did last season, the Raiders should be passing plenty.
Adams remains the alpha. All other targets are up in the air. Mayer doesn’t need to do much to exceed ADP expectations. And in the belief he’ll finish strong once he acclimates to the league, he’s a great bet to be a top-14 TE beginning in November.