Las Vegas Raiders tight end Michael Mayer looks to buck the trend of rookie tight ends not mattering for fantasy football. Expected to start right away, could he become a fantasy force over the second half of the season? What is Mayer’s fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Michael Mayer’s Fantasy Outlook
The Raiders took Mayer very early in the second round of this year’s NFL Draft. He posted over 800 receiving yards in each of his final two collegiate seasons. He’s got great speed and looks like a potential future star at the position.
Normally, we don’t care much for rookie tight ends in redraft leagues. The tight end position is the most difficult for prospects to fully grasp at the NFL level. It typically takes a couple of years.
With that said, we have seen rookie tight ends matter in fantasy. And not just the outliers like 2002 Jeremy Shockey or 2017 Evan Engram. Just last season, Greg Dulcich started to emerge later in the season. In 2021, Kyle Pitts finished as a fantasy TE1.
For the past few seasons, the Raiders have deployed Darren Waller and Foster Moreau at tight end. Neither of those players is on the team. It’s always a challenge for a rookie tight end to hit the ground running, but this job should be Mayer’s relatively quickly, if not in the opening week.
Even if Mayer does start, though, there are concerns about his fantasy viability. I don’t believe Jimmy Garoppolo is a meaningful downgrade from Derek Carr. However, I do believe the Raiders may throw a bit less this season.
Furthermore, Mayer is not going to command targets the way Waller did. No one is taking any volume away from Davante Adams. Jakobi Meyers should confidently be second on this team in targets. The question is whether Mayer can earn a greater target share than Hunter Renfrow. I’m not sure he can.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Mayer at His ADP?
I do have Mayer as the most productive Raiders tight end. While they did sign Austin Hooper and O.J. Howard, the former is not a dynamic player, and the latter has proven to not be an NFL starter.
However, my projections only have Mayer at a 9.5% target share. That gives him 36 catches for 425 yards and 1.7 touchdowns. That’s 5.2 PPR fantasy points per game.
Even if those numbers are backloaded, we’re probably not looking at a fantasy starter. Of course, I could be underselling Mayer a bit here. The good news is he has a TE22 ADP.
I’ve got Mayer as my TE23, right in line with the consensus. No one should draft him as their starter. Just monitor his early season usage, and if you see something promising, be ready to pounce on the waiver wire.