As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of Michael Carter.
Michael Carter’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
Here we have the latest entry in why fantasy managers can never trust Day 3 picks. By all accounts, Carter had a really solid rookie season in 2021. He totaled just under 1,000 yards and showcased strong pass-catching ability with his 11.5% target share.
Carter was efficient with his 5.3 yards per touch, 11th in the league. He made defenders miss with his 12th-ranked yards created per touch and 11th-ranked evaded-tackles-per-touch rate.
Had Carter been a Day 2 pick, I’m quite confident he’d have been given the keys to the backfield. Instead, the Jets summarily replaced their productive rookie RB with a superstar.
Heading into the 2022 season, the Jets made it clear Carter would still be their starter and would be involved. They had to say those things. And to an extent, I’m sure they meant it.
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Unfortunately for Carter, Breece Hall is just too good. It was just impossible for New York to watch both of them play and continue to split snaps evenly.
Carter averaged 11 points per game as a rookie, finishing as a high RB3. If Hall didn’t exist, I have no doubts Carter would’ve been capable of RB2 numbers. But his ceiling was around a mid-RB2. Hall’s ceiling, meanwhile, is the best running back in football.
After Hall went down, the stage was set for Carter to re-establish himself as an NFL-caliber starting RB. Instead, his play diminished. He averaged just 4.5 yards per touch and finished outside the top 35 in evaded tackles per touch. Carter’s yards per carry went from 4.3 as a rookie to 3.5 as a sophomore.
Rookie UDFA Zonovan “Bam” Knight eventually usurped Carter as the starter. By the end of the season, Carter’s snap share was sub-30%. He was losing snaps to not only Knight but Ty Johnson as well.
Michael Carter’s Fantasy Ranking
Carter will be 24 years old this season and still has two years left on his rookie deal. Perhaps he will work his way back to the Jets’ RB2 role.
But 2022 proved two things. First, that’s not a valuable role. Second, even if the starter goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will be Carter who picks up the slack.
The best time to cash out on Carter was after his rookie season and before the Jets drafted Hall. Ironically, the second-best time to cash out was probably after the Jets drafted Hall, despite Carter’s value torpedoing following the 2022 NFL Draft.
Right now, there’s not much you can do. If someone is willing to offer up anything of value, take it. If not, hang tight and hope that something unexpected boosts Carter’s value.
We currently have him at RB38 (No. 122 overall) in our dynasty Superflex rankings. For me, he’s quite a bit lower than that. I don’t foresee him ever having fantasy value again and would not consider him anything more than an RB5. I would have no interest in him in dynasty startup drafts.