The good thing about the AFC being so mid is there are potential elimination games most every week for teams in the mix.
That’s the reality this Sunday in the Hoosier State when the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts face off in a battle of flawed teams.
Miami Dolphins-Indianapolis Colts Game Preview
Last Time Out
The Dolphins snapped their three-game losing streak in Week 5 by getting back to the basics. They ran the ball 41 times — the second-most attempts in the Mike McDaniel era — in a 15-10 victory over the New England Patriots.
The Dolphins enter Week 7 at 2-3 and a half-game back of the Indianapolis Colts for the AFC’s seventh seed.
Super sub Joe Flacco (starting in place of an injured Anthony Richardson) rallied the Colts past the Tennessee Titans 20-17 in Week 6.
This is the start of a tough six-game stretch for Indianapolis, which includes showdowns with four division leaders.
Key Injuries
The Dolphins are relatively healthy coming off their bye — or at least as healthy as a team with 11 players on injured reserve (including QB Tua Tagovailoa) can be.
Running back De’Von Achane (concussion) and safety Jevon Holland (hand) are the biggest question marks, but both seem to have a real chance to play Sunday.
The Colts’ starting lineup on offense should look substantially different in Week 7 than it did in Week 6.
Richardson and star running back Jonathan Taylor are expected back, but starting center Ryan Kelly is a big-time question mark after leaving the Titans game with a calf injury. If he cannot go, the Colts would likely start two rookies on the offensive line — Tanor Bortolini at center and Dalton Tucker at guard.
Indianapolis’ leaky defense could get a big boost this week, as defensive lineman DeForest Buckner (high ankle sprain) is eligible to return from injured reserve.
Series History
Here’s a fun fact: Since 1995, the Indianapolis Colts have won nearly as many AFC East championships (1) as the Dolphins have (2) — even though the Colts have been in the AFC South since 2002.
But before realignment, these were divisional rivals, and the Dolphins have played the Colts more times (76, including the playoffs) than any other team except the Jets, Patriots, and Bills.
The Dolphins own the all-time series edge 48-28, but the Colts have won seven of the last nine dating back to the start of the 2003 season.
Betting Lines
The Colts are early 3.5-point favorites, with a -192 moneyline and a 42.5 over/under. The Dolphins’ moneyline as of early Tuesday was +160.
The Colts are 5-1 against the spread in 2024, including 3-0 at home. At 1-4, the Dolphins are the league’s second-worst performer ATS.
Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts Stats and Rankings
Offense
Dolphins
Scoring: 12 (32nd)
Yards: 302.4 (23rd)
Yards per play: 4.7 (29th)
Rushing: 116.8 (18th)
Yards per carry: 4 (26th)
Passing: 185.6 (26th)
Yards per pass: 5.8 (27th)
Interception rate: 2.5% (18th)
Sacks per pass attempt: 10% (t-26th)
First downs: 17.6 (25th)
Turnover margin: -2 (t-24th)
EPA per play: -.204 (32nd)
Success rate: 37.1% (31st)
Dropback EPA: -.16 (28th)
Rush EPA: -.263 (31st)
Colts
Scoring: 23.2 (16th)
Yards: 336.8 (13th)
Yards per play: 5.8 (ninth)
Rushing: 117.7 (17th)
Yards per carry: 4.6 (14th)
Passing: 219.2 (15th)
Yards per pass: 7.1 (11th)
Interception rate: 3.8% (31st)
Sacks per pass attempt: 5.4% (sixth)
First downs: 19.2 (18th)
Turnover margin: +1 (t-11th)
EPA per play: .040 (12th)
Success rate: 41% (23rd)
Dropback EPA: .121 (11th)
Rush EPA: -.085 (19th)
Defense
Dolphins
Scoring: 22.6 (17th)
Yards: 285.4 (fifth)
Yards per play: 5.3 (12th)
Rushing: 125.8 (18th)
Yards per carry: 4.7 (23rd)
Passing: 159.6 (third)
Yards per pass: 6.2 (11th)
Interception rate: 2.3% (15th)
Sacks per pass attempt: 7% (21st)
First downs: 16.4 (fifth)
EPA per play: -.040 (12th)
Success rate: 40.4% (seventh)
Dropback EPA: .006 (16th)
Rush EPA: -.091 (13th)
Colts
Scoring: 23.2 (18th)
Yards: 389.5 (30th)
Yards per play: 5.7 (26th)
Rushing: 155.2 (31st)
Yards per carry: 4.6 (19th)
Passing: 234.3 (26th)
Yards per pass: 7.3 (25th)
Interception rate: 2.1% (16th)
Sacks per pass attempt: 6.2% (28th)
First downs: 21.7 (27th)
EPA per play: .028 (22nd)
Success rate: 41.5% (11th)
Dropback EPA: .120 (23rd)
Rush EPA: -.082 (14th)
Projected Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins Starting Lineups
Dolphins
Quarterback: Snoop Huntley
Wide receiver: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Running back/fullback: Raheem Mostert, Alec Ingold
Tight end: Durham Smythe
Offensive line (left to right): Terron Armstead, Robert Jones, Aaron Brewer, Liam Eichenberg, Austin Jackson
Defensive line: Zach Sieler, Benito Jones, Calais Campbell
Linebacker: David Long, Jordyn Brooks, Emmanuel Ogbah, Chop Robinson
Defensive backs: Jalen Ramsey, Kendall Fuller, Jevon Holland, Marcus Maye
Colts
Quarterback: Anthony Richardson
Wide receiver: Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Alec Pierce
Running back/fullback: Jonathan Taylor
Tight end: Mo Alie-Cox
Offensive line (left to right): Bernhard Raimann, Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, Dalton Tucker, Braden Smith
Defensive line: Kwity Paye, Taven Bryan, Grover Stewart, Dayo Odeyingbo
Linebacker: E.J. Speed, Zaire Franklin, Jaylon Carlies
Defensive backs: Samuel Womack III, Julian Blackmon, Nick Cross, Jaylon Jones
What They’re Saying
“You need a team that is used to high-stress situations. One way you can induce stress is have a three-game losing streak early. I think the biggest thing is that there are some teams that have maybe zero, one or two losses, that in the NFL, you can get lulled to sleep in terms of you can get comfortable.
“You can be like, ‘All right, we’re winning some games.’ The most important, absolute, non-negotiable is you have to be playing your best football at the end of the year for you to like the results of the end of the year.” — Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel
