The NFL was wise to flex Week 17’s Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns snoozer out of Sunday Night Football.
With 10 combined wins, Dolphins-Browns was the NFL’s fourth-worst pairing of Christmas Week. So what will the few pockets of America subjected to this game see beginning at 4:05 p.m. Sunday?
Read on for key stats from TruMedia, plus insights and betting information in PFN’s Browns vs. Dolphins preview.
Miami Dolphins-Cleveland Browns Game Preview
The Dolphins entered Week 17 needing a win and considerable help just for their regular season finale against the New York Jets to have any postseason meaning.
But that doesn’t mean there’s nothing on the line on Sunday.
If the Dolphins win out, they will extend their streak of consecutive winning seasons to five. The Dolphins haven’t had five straight winning seasons since 1997-2003.
The Browns, meanwhile, have locked in their ninth last-place divisional finish in 14 seasons. They plan to start third-string quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who will have to contend with the Dolphins’ No. 13 defense (per DEF+, 77.8) with a sore calf.
Last Time Out
The Dolphins beat the San Francisco 49ers 29-17 for their fifth win in seven games.
De’Von Achane had his best game of the season (120 rushing yards, 70 receiving yards, and one TD) and needs just 39 rushing yards in his final two weeks to surpass 800 for the second straight season. Achane’s 1,340 yards from scrimmage account for 27.2% of the team’s offensive output.
The Browns, meanwhile, are in a freefall. After a 24-6 Week 16 loss vs. the Bengals, they’ve lost four or more consecutive games for the second time this season. Cleveland entered the season with Super Bowl hopes but, as the calendar year comes to an end, is just a game better than the New York Giants, who had the NFL’s worst record entering Week 17.
Cleveland has scored 27 points total in the last three weeks. The Browns have scored 20 or more points three times in their 15 games.
Series History
This is just the 22nd all-time meeting — and 10th since 1993 — between the Dolphins and the Browns, which is surprising considering the series began in 1970.
The Dolphins own a 12-9 all-time edge, which includes a 39-17 victory in 2022, the two teams’ most recent meeting.
Betting Lines
The Browns as of Friday were 6.5-point home underdogs. The over/under was 39.5.
As for the moneylines? MIA -340 and CLE +270.
The betting public loves the Dolphins in this game; 93% of the bets and 98% of the money were on Dolphins ML as of late in the week.
Seven Dolphins-Browns Stats From TruMedia
- Thompson-Robinson last week posted a 63.7 (D) QB+ grade, the eighth-worst game by a Browns QB since 2019. Thompson-Robinson has only had five career qualifying games (15+ pass attempts), and yet, he has three of the eight worst games by a Browns QB since 2019.
- In 2022, Tua Tagovailoa averaged 9.6 air yards per throw. That rate dropped to 7.6 last season and sits at 5.7 through 16 weeks this season.
- The Browns have not scored in the first, second, or fourth quarters in consecutive games.
- Tyreek Hill doesn’t have a catch gaining more than 30 yards since Week 1 and has caught just five of 14 targets over the past two weeks (Week 14 vs NYJ: 10 catches on 14 targets).
- The Dolphins have held their opponents out of the end zone in the majority of their red-zone trips over their past three games (7 of 13).
- Only two players in NFL history have reached 100 career sacks in fewer games than Myles Garrett (115): Reggie White (96) and DeMarcus Ware (113).
- Over the past three weeks, 35.5% of Miami drives have resulted in a made field goal.
Browns vs. Dolphins Predictions
- Mike Wobschall (71.1% correct on the season): Browns
- Kyle Soppe (67.9%): Dolphins
- Adam Beasley (66.3%): Dolphins
- David Bearman (63.3%): Dolphins
- Dan Tomaro (60.1%): Dolphins
The Dolphins win in 56.2% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
For all Week 17 PFN Expert Picks, click here.