The Buffalo Bills (6-2) can effectively clinch the AFC East three days after Halloween as a 2-5 Miami Dolphins team in crisis returns to its house of horrors in Week 9.
But there is a path to victory for most every NFL team, every week, and that’s true for Miami — which could be at an organizational crossroads — on Sunday. What is that path? We explore in our early-week Dolphins-Bills preview.
Miami Dolphins-Buffalo Bills Game Preview
Last Time Out
The Dolphins’ offense returned as Tua Tagovailoa did in Week 8. But even season-highs in points (27) and touchdowns (three) weren’t enough against Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., and a surprisingly potent Arizona Cardinals offense.
Miami did run for 150+ yards for the third straight game and expect them to lean on that newfound strength Sunday against a Buffalo defense that ranks 27th in the NFL in yards per carry (4.8).
That’s about the only criticism of a Bills team that has won their last three games by an average of 16 points. In Week 8, they thrashed the Seattle Seahawks 31-10.
Buffalo’s offense is absolutely clicking, having racked up 445 yards and 29 first downs against Seattle.
Key Injuries
The Bills got through the Seahawks game relatively unscathed, and really the only question mark is linebacker Terrel Bernard, who sat out Week 8 with a pec issue.
The Dolphins’ defense was without three key pieces against the Cardinals: CBs Kader Kohou (neck) and Storm Duck (ankle), and DT Zach Sieler (eye). And things went from bad to worse Sunday when Jevon Holland left the game and did not return with a knee injury.
Series History
Bleak, bleak, bleak — for the Dolphins, that is.
The Bills own the Dolphins this decade, sort of like how the Dolphins owned the Bills in the 1970s (when Miami won a ridiculous 20 straight games against Buffalo).
The current dynamic isn’t quite so lopsided. The Dolphins have lost five straight and 14 of 16 to the Bills.
That includes a Week 2 31-10 beatdown on national television that completely derailed Miami’s season before it could even begin. Tagovailoa suffered his fourth diagnosed concussion in that game, and it started a stretch of five losses in six games.
Betting Lines
Given the teams’ long-term and recent histories, the question wasn’t whether the Bills would be favored but by how much. And we’ve got to admit, we’re a bit surprised that the line as of Tuesday morning was only Buffalo -6.
The Dolphins in the Mike McDaniel era are just 5-8 against the spread as road underdogs. But it’s not like the Bills have been juggernauts at home, either. They’re just 10-12 ATS as home favorites in the last three seasons.
The over/under for the game is 49. The Bills are a -278 moneyline favorite, while the Dolphins are +225 underdogs.
Dolphins vs. Bills Stats and Rankings
Offense
Dolphins
- Scoring: 13.9 (last)
- Yards: 318 (22nd)
- Yards per play: 4.9 (25th)
- Rushing: 131.7 (ninth)
- Yards per carry: 4.3 (16th)
- Passing: 186.3 (26th)
- Yards per pass: 5.8 (25th)
- Interception rate: 1.8% (13th)
- Sacks per pass attempt: 8.4% (21st)
- First downs: 18.3 (22nd)
- Turnover margin: -3 (t-21st)
- EPA per play: -.157 (29th)
- Success rate: 39.7% (26th)
- Dropback EPA: -.085 (25th)
- Rush EPA: -.250 (31st)
Bills
- Scoring: 28.8 (fifth)
- Yards: 336.5 (13th)
- Yards per play: 5.8 (ninth)
- Rushing: 122.3 (12th)
- Yards per carry: 4.3 (17th)
- Passing: 214.3 (15th)
- Yards per pass: 7.6 (seventh)
- Interception rate: .44% (first)
- Sacks per pass attempt: 4.4% (second)
- First downs: 20 (12th)
- Turnover margin: +11 (first)
- EPA per play: .182 (third)
- Success rate: 46.9% (eighth)
- Dropback EPA: .296 (third)
- Rush EPA: .025 (fifth)
Defense
Dolphins
- Scoring: 22.4 (16th)
- Yards: 300 (sixth)
- Yards per play: 5.3 (14th)
- Rushing: 123.7 (16th)
- Yards per carry: 4.4 (13th)
- Passing: 176.3 (fifth)
- Yards per pass: 6.5 (16th)
- Interception rate: 1.6% (22nd)
- Sacks per pass attempt: 4.8% (29th)
- First downs: 17.1 (fifth)
- EPA per play: -.016 (13th)
- Success rate: 41.5% (10th)
- Dropback EPA: .061 (19th)
- Rush EPA: -.105 (12th)
Bills
- Scoring: 18.3 (sixth)
- Yards: 328.4 (16th)
- Yards per play: 5.3 (12th)
- Rushing: 120.3 (15th)
- Yards per carry: 4.8 (27th)
- Passing: 208.1 (t-13th)
- Yards per pass: 6 (fifth)
- Interception rate: 2.9%
- Sacks per pass attempt: 7.2%
- First downs: 19 (t-15th)
- EPA per play: -.070 (seventh)
- Success rate: 41.1% (eighth)
- Dropback EPA: -.017 (10th)
- Rush EPA: -.156 (sixth)
Projected Dolphins vs. Bills Starting Lineups
Dolphins
- Quarterback: Tua Tagovailoa
- Wide receiver: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
- Running back/fullback: De’Von Achane, Alec Ingold
- Tight end: Durham Smythe
- Offensive line (left to right): Terron Armstead, Robert Jones, Aaron Brewer, Liam Eichenberg, Austin Jackson
- Defensive line: Da’Shawn Hand, Benito Jones, Calais Campbell
- Linebacker: David Long, Jordyn Brooks, Emmanuel Ogbah, Chop Robinson
- Defensive backs: Jalen Ramsey, Kendall Fuller, Jordan Poyer, Marcus Maye
Bills
- Quarterback: Josh Allen
- Wide receiver: Mack Hollins, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman
- Running back/fullback: James Cook
- Tight end: Dalton Kincaid
- Offensive line (left to right): Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern, O’Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown
- Defensive line: Dawuane Smoot, Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Greg Rousseau
- Linebacker: Dorian Williams, Terrel Bernard, Taron Johnson
- Defensive backs: Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin
What They’re Saying
“I believe in this team, I believe in the work ethic and the talent that we have here. Talent means nothing without hard work and through this situation where we haven’t won the games that we wanted to, I’ve seen guys pick up their work ethic, I’ve seen guys not complain, not point the finger, stuff like that. It just kind of tells me we got a bunch of people ready to win and do the right things to win.” — Dolphins RT Austin Jackson