The nose-diving Miami Dolphins return Sunday to their own personal house of pain to face a Buffalo Bills team on the verge of locking up their fifth straight AFC East crown.
Can the Dolphins pull off the big upset in Week 9? Or will draft season come early in Miami? We break it all down in our stat-heavy Dolphins-Bills preview.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Game Preview
The return of Tua Tagovailoa in Week 8 helped fix Miami’s offense, but the result was the same as it was in four of the previous five games: a Dolphins loss.
Miami is now 2-5 and is closer to the No. 1 pick than a playoff berth.
The Bills, meanwhile, look like a bona fide Super Bowl contender. They’re 6-2 with a +84 point differential and a +11 turnover margin.
No surprise, then, that they as of Friday were six-point home favorites, with a -265 moneyline. The Dolphins were more than two-to-one underdogs.
A staggering 90% of the money as of Friday was on Bills moneyline, with more than three-quarters of bettors laying the points.
Can the Dolphins shock the world? We break it down with stats courtesy of TruMedia.
Seven Dolphins-Bills Stats From TruMedia
Stat: The Dolphins are 3-8 on the road (including playoffs) after Halloween under Mike McDaniel, and the cold weather is a big reason why.
Analysis: The good news for Miami? McDaniel’s team doesn’t play another true East Coast game on the road until Week 17 (at Cleveland and at New York to finish the season).
Stat: The Bills are coming off of a stretch where they played four of five games on the road. Three of the next four are in front of #BillsMafia (Chiefs in Week 11 and 49ers in Week 13).
Analysis: Miami used to own the Bills, home and away. But since 2004, the Dolphins are just 4-17 in Buffalo and have been outscored by 225 points in those games.
Stat: Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense is cooking. Their touchdown per drive rate has increased in each of the last four games (16.7% rate in Week 5, 33.3% in Week 6, 36.4% in Week 7, and 40% in Week 8).
Analysis: Allen at home in his career against the Dolphins is 7-0, with a 116.7 passer rating, an 8.4 yards-per-attempt average, and 21 touchdowns with just four picks.
Stat: The Bills’ home stadium has been a house of horrors for Tua Tagovailoa. His passer rating there (75.7) is second-worst of any NFL building in which he’s played more than once, behind only Arrowhead.
Analysis: Tagovailoa must conquer the (kinda) cold in a way he hasn’t before. He’s 0-4 all-time at Buffalo, completing just 60.5% of his passes, throwing five interceptions to four touchdowns, and averaging 6.7 yards per attempt.
Stat: In his return to action after a four-game IR stint, Tagovailoa completed 28 passes against the Arizona Cardinals, his most in a game since Week 8 of last season.
Analysis: Miami averaged 5.9 yards per play in Week 8, the team’s best mark since Week 1 (the only other full game by Tagovailoa). In Weeks 2-7, the Dolphins managed just 4.4 yards per play.
Stat: The average NFL team records a sack on 21.5% of dropbacks in which they create pressure. Through eight weeks, Miami is 12.3%, the second-lowest in the league (Atlanta).
Analysis: The Dolphins have just nine sacks in seven games, second-fewest in the NFL behind the Falcons (6). Rookie Chop Robinson has zero sacks, one quarterback hit, and 11 pressures in 97 pass rush snaps. Hurry back, Bradley Chubb.
Stat: Buffalo has the fifth-highest pressure rate when bringing the heat (48%), a strength they carried over from last season (47.3%).
Analysis: The Dolphins’ pass protection actually has been pretty good this year. Miami ranks 12th in pass block win rate (61%), thanks in large part to Terron Armstead staying healthy.
Dolphins vs. Bills Predictions
David Bearman (75-47 on the season): Bills
Adam Beasley (75-47): Dolphins
Anthony DiBona (72-50): Bills
Mike Gambardella (79-43): Bills
Dakota Randall (74-48): Bills
Dallas Robinson (75-47): Bills
Kyle Soppe (81-41): Bills
Dan Tomaro (74-48): Bills
Mike Wobschall (74-34): Bills
Full Week 9 picks from PFN are available here.