There was such great hope for this late-season San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins showdown when the NFL released its Week 16 schedule.
But instead of a potential Super Bowl showdown, there’s no intrigue in Kyle Shanahan’s visit to the home of longtime friend and colleague Mike McDaniel in this matchup of 6-8 teams.
Read on for key stats from TruMedia, insights, and betting information in PFN’s Dolphins vs. 49ers preview.
San Francisco 49ers-Miami Dolphins Game Preview
The Chargers’ comeback victory Thursday night somehow made the Dolphins’ path to the playoffs even narrower and means Miami would be eliminated from consideration with a loss or tie Sunday.
Beyond winning out, the Dolphins need:
- The Colts to lose one of their last three.
- And the Chargers or Broncos to lose twice or the Ravens to lose out.
The 49ers’ odds of getting in are somehow even worse.
They also need to win out and have the following results occur:
- The Commanders lose out.
- The Falcons lose in Weeks 16 and 18.
- The Rams or Seahawks losing out.
- The Cardinals losing Week 16 or 17.
Last Time Out
These West Coast offense coaches both put up offensive (in the literal sense) numbers in Week 15.
The 49ers went without a touchdown for the first time in five years in a soggy 12-6 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, turned the ball over four times and averaged 2.7 yards per carry in their 20-12 loss to the Houston Texans.
Series History
This is the 16th meeting between the 49ers and Dolphins in a series that was dominated early by Miami but swung hard in the other direction beginning in Super Bowl XIX.
The Niners have won seven of the last 11 meetings, including a 33-17 home victory in 2022.
The Dolphins still have an all-time 8-7 series edge.
Betting Lines
After being the betting favorites earlier in the week, the Dolphins were, as of Friday, 1-point home underdogs to the 49ers.
That reflects a ton of action on the Niners through the week (62% of the bets and 71% of the money when San Francisco was +1.5).
Deebo’s Drops
Deebo Samuel thinks he’s not getting the ball enough. Jerry Rice thinks he’s not doing enough with his opportunities.
So who’s right in this beef between San Francisco 49ers star receivers of the past and present?
Rice ripped Samuel for complaining about his lack of touches this year, rightly pointing out that Samuel aired those grievances after a particularly egregious drop in the Niners’ Week 15 loss to the Rams.
In truth, both have a point.
Yes, Samuel’s usage is down (although not massively).
And yes, his drops — and general regression – are problems that are holding the 49ers back.
First, a look at Deebo’s year-over-year stats:
2023
Snaps
- 708 of 1,066 (66.4%)
- 47.2 snaps per active game
Receiving stats
- 89 targets
- 60 catches
- 892 yards
- 7 TDs
- 10.0 yards per target
- 67.4% catch rate
Rushing stats
- 37 carries
- 225 yards
- 5 TDs
- 6.1 yards per carry
- 67.6% success rate
Usage rate (percentage of snaps with a carry or target)
- 19.2% (136 of 708)
2024
Snaps
- 576 of 875 (65.8%)
- 44.3 snaps per active game
Receiving stats
71 targets
43 catches
569 yards
1 TD
8.0 yards per target
60.6% catch rate
36.6% success rate
Rushing stats
- 34 carries
- 95 yards
- 1 TD
- 2.8 yards per carry
- 38.2% success rate
Usage rate (percentage of snaps with a carry or target)
- 18.1% (104 of 576)
Samuel certainly has a point that as one of the 49ers’ best players, his role should be larger, particularly with Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk on injured reserve.
But his efficiency when he’s gotten the ball has just as much to do with his diminished numbers. Drops are definitely a concern. He has six on the season, and his drop rate (8.5%) is in the bottom 25 of the league and the third-worst figure of his career.
Seven More 49ers-Dolphins Stats From TruMedia
- The Dolphins have scored 52 points in their past three road games and 100 during their past three played at home.
- Seeing ghosts? Brock Purdy completed just nine of 19 non-pressured passes in Week 15, the worst rate of his career (47.4%).
- Purdy’s completion percentage this season drops from 70.8% when Christian McCaffrey is on the field to 63.8% without the star tailback.
- The 49ers’ touchdown rate has fallen from 33.5% last season to 20.8% this season (their points per drive are down 22.7%).
- Miami allowed 16.2 yards per drive to Houston last week, the team’s best defensive showing of the season.
- San Francisco has lost four of five games. The Niners averaged 4.5 losses per regular season over the two years prior.
- Miami needs to be perfect the rest of the way to extend its streak of winning seasons to five straight years.
49ers vs. Dolphins Predictions
- Mike Wobschall (71.3% correct on the season): Dolphins
- Kyle Soppe (67.7%): Dolphins
- Adam Beasley (66.4%): 49ers
- David Bearman (61.4%): 49ers
- Dan Tomaro (59.6%): 49ers
The 49ers win in 47.9% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
For all Week 16 PFN Expert Picks, click here.
