The Miami Dolphins’ playoff hopes aren’t dead. The same goes for the San Francisco 49ers, Miami’s Week 16 opponent.
How can the Dolphins get in? By walking the thinnest tightrope. We explore Miami’s playoff scenarios in our NFL Week 16 Dolphins rooting guide.
Dolphins’ Playoff Chances Heading Into Week 16
Cornerback Kader Kohou said the following when asked in the wake of the Dolphins’ season-wrecking loss to the Houston Texans what the team’s motivation is for the rest of the year:
“Playoffs.”
We here at PFN love the power of positive thinking. So can the Dolphins actually do it?
Sure, it’s going to take a lot of work — and help.
They enter Week 16 as the AFC’s ninth seed with a 6-8 record — two games behind the seventh-seeded Chargers and three games behind the Ravens and Broncos (fifth and sixth seed, respectively).
They actually could technically catch all three.
The Dolphins according to PFN’s Playoff Predictor still have a 1.6% chance of finishing with the fifth seed, a 6.1% chance of finishing with the sixth seed, and a surprisingly strong 14.6% chance of finishing with the seventh seed.
Add those numbers together and the Dolphins still have better than a one in five chance of reaching the postseason.
Dolphins’ Rooting Guide for Week 16
Of course, there’s a lot more that goes into it.
For the Dolphins to defy the odds, the following things need to happen:
- Wins in their last three games
- A Colts loss to the Titans, Giants, or Jaguars
- And two Chargers losses in their final three games (against the Broncos, Patriots, and Raiders)
Again, there are scenarios in which the Dolphins get in over the Ravens and Broncos, but the odds of that are exceedingly slim.
Regardless, here are the four games that the Dolphins want to go their way, beginning with Thursday night’s AFC West showdown:
- The Broncos to beat the Chargers (57.6% chance of happening, per PFN metrics)
- The Steelers to beat the Ravens (41%)
- The Titans to beat the Colts (38.2%)
- And then, of course, the Dolphins to beat the 49ers (50.7%)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins Preview
Deebo’s Drops
Deebo Samuel thinks he’s not getting the ball enough. Jerry Rice thinks he’s not doing enough with his opportunities.
So who’s right in this beef between San Francisco 49ers star receivers of the past and present?
Rice ripped Samuel for complaining about his lack of touches this year, rightly pointing out that Samuel aired those grievances after a particularly egregious drop in the Niners’ Week 15 loss to the Rams.
In truth, both have a point.
Yes, Samuel’s usage is down (although not massively). And yes, his drops — and general regression — are a problem that are holding the 49ers back.
First, a look at Samuel’s year-over-year stats:
2023
Snaps
- 708 of 1,066 (66.4%)
- 47.2 snaps per active game
Receiving stats
- 89 targets
- 60 catches
- 892 yards
- 7 TDs
- 10 yards per target
- 67.4% catch rate
Rushing stats
- 37 carries
- 225 yards
- 5 TDs
- 6.1 yards per carry
- 67.6% success rate
Usage rate (percentage of snaps with a carry or target)
- 19.2% (136 of 708)
2024
Snaps
- 576 of 875 (65.8%)
- 44.3 snaps per active game
Receiving stats
- 71 targets
- 43 catches
- 569 yards
- 1 TD
- 8.0 yards per target
- 60.6% catch rate
- 36.6% success rate
Rushing stats
- 34 carries
- 95 yards
- 1 TD
- 2.8 yards per carry
- 38.2% success rate
Usage rate (percentage of snaps with a carry or target)
- 18.1% (104 of 576)
Samuel certainly has a point that, as one of the 49ers’ best players, his role should be larger, particularly with Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk on injured reserve.
But his efficiency when he’s gotten the ball has just as much to do with his diminished numbers. Drops are definitely a concern. He has six on the season, and his drop rate (8.5%) is in the bottom 25 of the league and the third-worst of his career.
Running on Empty
The Dolphins are largely out of the playoff hunt because they have completely surrendered the point of attack.
In their Week 15 loss to the Houston Texans, the Dolphins’ offensive line:
- Averaged 2.7 yards per carry
- And allowed 21 pressures on 43 dropbacks
Sunday’s shellacking was no one-off.
The Dolphins in 2024 are ranked:
- 31st in yards per carry (3.9)
- 27th in yards before contact per carry (1.2)
Compare that to their 2023 rankings:
- First in yards per carry (5.1)
- 10th in yards before contact per carry (1.6)
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel named Austin Jackson’s Week 9 injury as the turning point.
In the 540 offensive snaps in which Jackson was on the field in 2024, the Dolphins had:
- 1,072 yards on 243 carries (4.4 average)
- Six rushing touchdowns
- 1.52 yards-before-contact average
- 50% rushing third-down conversion rate
With either Kendall Lamm or Jackson Carman at right tackle, the Dolphins had:
- 348 yards on 125 attempts (2.8 per)
- Three rushing touchdowns
- 0.5 yards-before-contact average
- 25% rushing third-down conversion rate
One other stat to explain the Dolphins’ steep decline in yards-per carry average? Their complete inability to create explosive plays on the ground.
- In 2023, they averaged a 20+ yard run once every 26.8 carries. (17 of 456)
- In 2024, they have only managed one once every 92 attempts. (4 of 368)