MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — To quote late-stage Michael Corleone, just when we thought we were out, the Miami Dolphins pulled us back in.
Sunday’s ugly win over the New England Patriots saved their season. And given how bad the AFC is this year, it brought the postseason back into play.
Miami Dolphins’ Playoff Scenarios
The Dolphins’ playoff hopes got a big lift in Week 5 when they gained a game on the entire division.
Entering their Week 6 bye, the Dolphins (2-3) are one of 10 teams within a game of the AFC’s No. 3 seed. And they’re a half-game behind the Los Angeles Chargers for the conference’s final Wild Card spot.
Put another way: The Dolphins’ three-game losing streak was damaging, but not fatal, to their postseason hopes.
“I think you have to establish first and foremost the elephant in the room: We were absolutely going into the game with non-negotiable, needing to win it,” Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel said of their 15-10 win over New England. “We felt that way as a team and we were able to do that.”
Dolphins Bye Week Stat: 29% of teams that start 2-3 make the #nfl playoffs. #finsup #believe #byeweek pic.twitter.com/2zbTAkRHPO
— Josh Moser (@TheMozKnowz) October 7, 2024
As a result, Miami now has better than a one-in-three chance to return to the playoffs for the third time in as many years.
That’s according to the implied probability (37.9%) of the futures bet odds (+164, per FanDuel), and PFN’s Playoff Predictor (39%, per 10,000 simulations).
But if the Dolphins are going to make the playoffs, it’ll likely be as a Wild Card.
Even though they’re just a game back of the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East, Miami would almost certainly need to win in Orchard Park — which they’ve done just once since the start of the 2012 season — in Week 9.
If they don’t, the Dolphins would need to make up three games in the standings on Buffalo in their other 11 games — which would be nearly impossible, short of a total Bills collapse.
That’s why the Dolphins have just a 5.4% chance to win the AFC East per PFN’s Playoff Predictor and 11.8% according to FanDuel’s betting line’s (+750) implied probability.
So what will it take? Our simulation tool has spit out scenarios in which Miami gets in at 8-9 (which would mean a 6-6 finish), but that seems pretty unlikely given their first five games included two conference losses.
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Miami’s most realistic path? Finding a way to beat the Indianapolis Colts with Tyler Huntley next weekend and then finishing 6-5 when Tua Tagovailoa returns to the lineup as expected in two weeks.
Do they have seven more winnable games on the schedule? Sure. According to PFN’s proprietary formula, the Dolphins have the AFC’s fourth-easiest remaining schedule, behind only the Bengals, Colts, and Bills.
But they still need to do the work. That means taking care of business at home (beating, at minimum, the Cardinals, Raiders, Patriots, and Jets) and stealing three on the road, starting with the Colts.
The Dolphins’ other remaining road opponents? The Bills, Rams, Packers, Texans, Browns, and Jets.
“Not looking down the road, or the standings either,” Dolphins tackle Terron Armstead said before leaving for his free weekend. “It’s still early. We’re not trying to seed or position, we’re just trying to focus on what we got going on, so Indy is next. That’s it, man. Just lock in on Indy — establish the run game, try to be dominant in the run game, and go get a win.”
