After defeating the Texans in Week 12, the Miami Dolphins were 8-3 and seemed like surefire postseason contenders. But a five-game losing streak and an uncertain quarterback situation now have the Dolphins on the precipice of elimination. Miami still has a playoff scenario by which they would enter the tournament, but they’ll need some help.
Update: Dolphins Beat Jets, Clinch Playoff Spot
The final spot in the AFC Playoff Picture has been wrapped up with the Dolphins winning 11-6 over the Jets and the Bills beat the Patriots 35-23. Miami will be the seventh seed and face the Bills in the Wild Card round next weekend.
Miami Dolphins Playoff Scenarios To Watch for in Week 18
Entering their Week 17 contest against New England, the Dolphins controlled their playoff destiny. Had they taken care of business and defeated the Patriots and Jets to close the season, Miami would’ve guaranteed themselves a Wild Card berth.
Instead, New England escaped with a 23-21 victory last Sunday, giving Bill Belichick’s squad the upper hand in the postseason race. Now, as the Dolphins prepare to play the Jets, they face uncertainty at the most critical position in sports.
Tua Tagovailoa won’t play against New York as he recovers from at least his second concussion of the year. Teddy Bridgewater started against the Patriots but exited after dislocating a finger, and he still can’t grip a football. Thus, rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson is expected to make his second start of the season.
Miami is trying to solve a dilemma under center, but their path to the playoff is pretty cut and dry.
In order to grab the remaining AFC Wild Card slot, the Dolphins need to beat the Jets and hope the Patriots lose or tie against the Bills. In the unlikely event that Miami and New York tie, the Dolphins could get into the playoffs if New England loses and Pittsburgh loses or ties.
The Dolphins are currently listed as one-point home underdogs to Gang Green. Thompson played extensively in Week 5’s MIA-NYJ matchup, attempting 33 passes in the 40-17 loss after relieving an injured Bridgewater.
There is no line in the Bills-Patriots game as the NFL world waits for positive news on Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin. Sean McDermott’s club defeated New England, 24-10, in Week 13.
If Miami loses to New York, they will not have a route to the playoffs. A Dolphins loss would leave the Patriots, Steelers, or Jaguars as the remaining options for the last AFC playoff spot.
The Dolphins have no chance of winning the AFC East, as the Bills have already clinched the division crown. Additionally, Miami can only enter the postseason as the seventh seed, as they wouldn’t be able to overtake the Ravens/Bengals or Chargers for the fifth or sixth seeds.
What Are the Dolphins’ Playoff Chances?
Although they need help to get into the playoffs, the Dolphins still have the best postseason odds among the AFC Wild Card contenders.
FiveThirtyEight gives Miami a 41% chance of making the playoffs, ahead of New England (33%) and Pittsburgh (21%). The New York Times’ Upshot model gives similar odds: Dolphins at 41%, Patriots at 37%, and Pittsburgh at 16%.
Those numbers are in stark contrast to Miami’s chances after Week 12, in which most models had placed around 90%. Their five-game losing streak has cut the Dolphins’ odds in half, but they are still alive entering the final week of the regular season.