The NFL‘s Christmas Day tripleheader brought significant clarity to the Miami Dolphins‘ playoff scenarios.
The Dolphins (11-4, currently second in the AFC) probably won’t know until the final day of the season what seed they’ll be in their conference. But they do know for certain what seeds they won’t be: the fourth or seventh.
The AFC North (currently led by the Baltimore Ravens, who at 12-3 have the NFL’s best record) and AFC East champions will likely be the AFC’s 1 and 2 seeds.
The AFC West and AFC South champions will likely be 3 and 4. (The only way the AFC West is 2 and the AFC East is 3 is if the Dolphins lose out and the Chiefs win out.)
The teams and exact order is still up in the air, but the Ravens can clinch the No. 1 seed on Sunday by beating the Dolphins, while a Miami victory would put Mike McDaniel’s club in prime position to secure the first-round bye.
Miami Dolphins Playoff Scenarios Entering Week 17
What’s more, even if the Dolphins lose out — and in the process, surrender their season-long lead of the division on what would almost certainly be the final game of the entire NFL regular season — they cannot be the AFC’s seventh seed.
They would be the fifth seed if the Browns also lose out. If not, they’d be the sixth seed, and open the playoffs on the road against the AFC West (very, very, likely the Chiefs) or AFC South champion (Jaguars, Colts, or Texans).
But there are a handful of plausible scenarios in which the Dolphins beat the Bills in Week 18 — and would have to do so again the following weekend.
The Bills (9-6, and 5-5 in the conference) have a 91.4% chance to make the postseason, per ESPN. The network’s advanced stats department gives the Bills a 24.7% chance to win the AFC East and the conference’s No. 2 seed.
So the Dolphins know for certain they will not open the playoffs in Western New York. But it’s not hard at all to imagine a scenario in which the Bills visit Miami Gardens two weeks in a row.
If the Bills beat the Patriots but lose to the Dolphins, they still would have an excellent chance of earning the AFC’s sixth or seventh seed.
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It would take an unlikely combination of results for a 10-7 Bills team to be left out of the dance. The most straightforward scenario? Both the Bengals and Steelers winning out.
Far more plausible? The Bills at 10-7 end up the seventh seed — which would mean they would play at the AFC’s No. 2 team in the Wild Card Round.
And that team would be the Dolphins, should Miami lose to Baltimore before beating Buffalo in Week 18.
So how might the Dolphins avoid a first-round showdown with their biggest rival, and arguably the AFC’s third-best team?
Beating both Baltimore and Buffalo to finish out the year would guarantee that. But if they lose to the Ravens, the Dolphins would have to hope the Bills either lose out or for the following:
Two of the three playoff-contending AFC South teams (Jaguars, Colts, and Texans) PLUS the Steelers and Bengals ALL lose or tie at least one game.
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Why? The Bills’ tiebreakers stink.
They have the third-most conference losses (five) among the nine AFC teams currently fighting for five playoff spots. They’ve lost head-to-head showdowns with the Jaguars, Bengals, and Broncos. And the Texans would have the edge over the Bills in record against common opponents, should that tiebreaker apply.
Which is why it’s not at all hard to envision the Bills ending up the seventh seed, assuming they beat the Patriots.
Buffalo and Miami would meet for the sixth time in two years if the Dolphins and Bills both split their final two games AND:
- Two of Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Houston win out OR
- Pittsburgh or Cincinnati wins out
OR
- The Dolphins lose out but Buffalo loses to New England and gets the sixth seed.
Don’t ask Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel about any of that, though.
“Nothing matters besides the Baltimore Ravens,” McDaniel said Monday. “It’s an awesome test for us. They’re a phenomenal team.
“… I could care less about any scenario at all. Like it literally matters nothing to me at this point. We’re in a situation where everything is helping us and leading us to ultimately what I think where our focus needs to be, which is this one opponent, which will deserve all of our attention.”
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