The Miami Dolphins‘ playoff scenarios entering Week 17 could not be more straightforward.
If they beat or tie the Baltimore Ravens, they will have clinched the AFC East and a top-two seed in the playoffs.
A tie would lock the Dolphins into the No. 2 seed. A win would put them in pole position to earn home-field advantage and the first-round bye that comes with it.
The Dolphins could also clinch the AFC East with a loss Sunday, but it would take a Bills loss or tie to the dreadful New England Patriots.
If the Dolphins lose and the Bills win, it sets up a winner-take AFC East showdown between the Dolphins and Bills in Week 18 for the AFC’s No. 2 seed.
Miami Dolphins Playoff Scenarios | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 31 before Sunday’s game began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the weekend.
After the late Sunday afternoon slate in Week 17, the Dolphins are the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Their Week 17 loss to the Ravens allowed Baltimore to clinch the conference’s No. 1 seed.
Miami will face Buffalo in a Week 18 matchup that will determine who wins the AFC East.
Thursday Night Football Update
Browns (11-5) defeated Jets (6-10)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Update
Ravens (13-3) defeated Dolphins (11-5)
Bills (10-6) defeated Patriots (4-12)
Texans (9-7) defeated Titans (5-11)
Jaguars (9-7) defeated Panthers (2-14)
Colts (9-7) defeated Raiders (7-9)
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Update
Steelers (9-7) defeated Seahawks (8-8)
Chiefs (10-6) defeated Bengals (8-8)
Broncos (8-8) defeated Chargers (5-11)
Be sure to check out our NFL Playoff Predictor to predict the rest of Week 17 and see how the playoff field shakes out.
Week 17 Miami Dolphins Playoff Scenarios
The Dolphins, per ESPN, have a 75% chance to win the AFC East, a 23% chance to win the No. 1 seed, and a 24% chance to make the Super Bowl for the first time in four decades.
The Dolphins’ likeliest outcome is ending up as the No. 2 seed. They have a 50% chance to do that and a negligible chance to end up the No. 3 seed (it would take two losses by Miami, two wins by Kansas City, and a loss or tie by Buffalo).
The Dolphins cannot be the Nos. 4, 5, or 7 seeds. If they end up as the Wild Card, it’ll be as the No. 6 seed, which ESPN gives a one-in-four chance of happening.
This is all the ground we’ve already covered.
But here’s a new twist: Whom might the Dolphins play in the Wild Card Round, assuming they don’t win out?
Dolphins Opponents as the No. 2 Seed
Again, this is the likeliest of the many scenarios.
If the Dolphins win or tie this week or next (but not both), they would face the AFC’s seventh seed in two weeks.
ESPN lists six teams with a realistic chance to end up as the No. 7: The Indianapolis Colts (19%), Buffalo Bills (17%), Houston Texans (16%), Cincinnati Bengals (13%), Las Vegas Raiders (11%), and Jacksonville Jaguars (11%).
Dolphins Opponents as the No. 3 Seed
There’s only one way the Dolphins can end up the No. 3: Lose out, have the Patriots beat or tie the Bills, and have the Chiefs win out.
MORE: Miami Dolphins Depth Chart
If that inside straight gets drawn, then they’ll face the No. 6 seed Wild Card Weekend, with the Bills (49% to be the No. 6) by far the likeliest opponent.
Dolphins Opponents as the No. 6 Seed
If you don’t want to see a Dolphins-Chiefs rematch, root for the Dolphins to win the division.
Because if the Dolphins don’t, this is a near-lock to be the 3-6 matchup. The Chiefs are 92% to secure the No. 3 seed.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!