The Miami Dolphins will have to wait at least another week to secure their first AFC East crown since 2008. For that, Dolphins fans can thank the Los Angeles Chargers, who lost to the Buffalo Bills 24-22 Saturday night despite winning the turnover battle 3-0.
So, the Week 16 Dolphins playoff scenarios entering Sunday’s games are all Wild Card-related.
Miami Dolphins Playoff Chances | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Sunday, Dec. 24 at 11:07 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 16, the Dolphins remain atop the AFC East and are still the AFC’s No. 2 seed. Miami clinched a playoff berth by defeating the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. They also control their own destiny regarding the AFC’s No. 1 seed. If they win their remaining two games, they will be the top seed in the AFC.
Saturday Games Update
Steelers (8-7) defeated Bengals (8-7)
Bills (9-6) defeated Chargers (5-10)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Games Update
Browns (10-5) defeated Texans (8-7)
Falcons (7-8) defeated Colts (8-7)
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Games Update
Dolphins (11-4) defeated Cowboys (10-5)
Buccaneers (8-7) defeated Jaguars (8-7)
Sunday Night Football Update
Patriots (4-11) defeated Broncos (7-8)
Christmas Day Update
Raiders (7-8) defeated Chiefs (9-6)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Dolphins entering Week 16. Additionally, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL playoff bracket.
Week 16 Miami Dolphins Playoff Scenarios
The earliest the Dolphins can secure a home playoff game is Week 17 — by either beating both the Dallas Cowboys Sunday and the Baltimore Ravens a week from Sunday. But there are a number of ways in which they can punch their ticket before Santa comes down the chimney.
How the Miami Dolphins Can Clinch a Playoff Berth
Miami clinches a playoff berth in Week 16 with:
- A win OR
- A tie and a Jacksonville Jaguars loss OR
- A tie and a Houston Texans loss or tie OR
- A tie and an Indianapolis Colts loss or tie
The Dolphins did get some help on Saturday — but it came in the early game.
When the Cincinnati Bengals lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Dolphins got help in three different branches of their clinching tree.
With a tie and one of three other results going their way Sunday would ensure the Dolphins go into the postseason as at least a Wild Card.
While a tie is an unlikely outcome of any game, the Dolphins have yet to play an overtime game, so they’re due — particularly since their point spread (-1) is the closest of any game this week.
The Dolphins woke up Sunday with a 98.9% chance of making the playoffs, per ESPN’s projections, but the Bills win dropped their AFC East odds to 63%.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
The Dolphins can clinch the AFC East one of three ways. They can win two of their next three, or beat either the Cowboys or Ravens and have the Bills lose to the New England Patriots.
If neither of those scenarios come to fruition, the Dolphins and Bills will meet in Week 18 with the division title on the line. The Dolphins can secure the one seed by winning out.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!