The Miami Dolphins are on track to potentially finish with their best regular-season record of the current millennium. Sitting at 7-3 entering their Week 12 Black Friday game, the Dolphins could finish the season with as many as 14 wins.
Nevertheless, Miami remains in the thick of a fascinating AFC playoff picture, and they’re still in a tight battle for the AFC East.
With the help of PFN’s Free NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s look at the Dolphins’ current playoff scenarios, including how they clinch a playoff spot, the AFC East, and whether they could still finish as the number one seed in the AFC.
What Are the Miami Dolphins’ Playoff Scenarios in 2023?
The way the AFC is currently shaping up is fascinating. Despite the Dolphins having the opportunity to win the most games they have in a single regular season since the 1984 season, they’re currently the fourth seed in the AFC and have a 1.5-game advantage in the division.
That leaves several intriguing scenarios open for the Dolphins’ playoff hopes in the next seven weeks. As things stand, Miami is 1.5 games ahead of Buffalo in the AFC East (the Bills’ bye is in Week 13) and two games ahead in the loss column.
Therefore, the Dolphins’ direct playoff and division-clinching scenario is to not lose two out of their remaining seven games — simple in theory, but less so in reality, with games against the Bills, Dallas Cowboys, and Baltimore Ravens still on the schedule.
The ideal situation for the Dolphins will be to clinch the division before facing the Bills in Week 18. Buffalo already beat down Miami back in Week 4 (48-20), so if they also win in Week 18 and the two finish tied in terms of win percentage, the Bills would hold the first divisional NFL playoff tiebreaker. Thus, the Dolphins can’t lose one more game than the Bills between now and Week 18.
If Miami loses three more games this year but still defeats Buffalo in Week 18 to finish tied, then it would come down to their divisional records to break any ties. The Bills have lost to both the New York Jets and New England Patriots this year, so if they fall to Miami, the best their divisional record could be is 3-3. In this scenario, as long as two of the Dolphins’ three losses are not to the Jets, they are guaranteed to finish 4-2 or better in the division.
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If the Dolphins did miss out on the division, the scenarios for the AFC Wild Card race are convoluted. They are currently tied with the Cleveland Browns (fifth seed), one game ahead of the sixth and seventh seeds (Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers), and two games ahead of the ninth, 10th, and 11th seeds (Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos, and Cincinnati Bengals).
If the Dolphins allow the Bills to claim the AFC East, they must finish above three of those other five teams to get a Wild Card spot. Despite having a shot at their best record since 1984, Miami still has a lot to do to secure a playoff spot in 2023.
Can the Dolphins Finish as the No. 1 Seed in the AFC?
Now that we’ve looked at the situation behind the Dolphins, the situation above them is no less complex entering Week 12. Currently, the Ravens are the No. 1 seed with an 8-3 record, with their bye scheduled for Week 13.
Therefore, the Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) control their destiny of the top seed in the conference. Kansas City has the head-to-head advantage over Miami after their game in Frankfurt, and thus, the Dolphins cannot finish in a direct tie with the Chiefs in order to secure the No. 1 seed.
Where things will get more complicated is if multiple teams are tied with the same record. The Chiefs have also defeated the Jaguars, so they have the head-to-head there as well to secure them with the No. 2 seed currently.
The Dolphins will face the Ravens later in the season, so that could even things up a little and take the Chiefs’ head-to-head out of play if all three are tied when the season ends. Still, Kansas City has the advantage with a superior conference record at 5-1, compared to 5-2 for Jacksonville and Miami (Baltimore is 5-3 in the conference).
The simplest scenario for the Dolphins is this:
- Win out, which would eliminate the Ravens from any tiebreaker if the Dolphins defeat them.
- Kansas City and Jacksonville both lose one more game and finish with four losses on their record.
Every loss for Miami from now until the end of the season takes the path to the one seed further from their control. They need Kansas City to lose at least one more game with two tiebreakers already against them. For every loss the Dolphins have this year, they need the Chiefs to have one more and the Jaguars to have the same amount.
The other thing going against the Dolphins so far is that their strength of victory (SOV) is woeful. No team that Miami has defeated this season has a .500 or better record entering Week 12.
The Broncos could be the first with a win this week, but that is a drop in the ocean. At .306, the Dolphins have the lowest SOV in the AFC. They need that to drastically improve if they cannot finish as the top seed outright based on win percentage.
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