MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — For the first time in weeks, it’s not totally outlandish to envision a playoff scenario in which the Miami Dolphins miss the playoffs.
To be clear, it’s still highly unlikely. According to ESPN, they’re still 96.8% to qualify for the postseason, but their odds of winning the division dropped precipitously in Week 14.
The Dolphins’ choke job against the Titans — when they became the first NFL team to blow a 14-point lead in the final three minutes of a game in the last 768 tries — combined with the Bills’ win in Kansas City gives Buffalo more than a 1-in-5 chance of stealing the AFC East.
How Week 14 Loss Complicates Miami Dolphins’ Playoff Scenarios
Keep in mind, the Dolphins still control their own destiny — not just to win the division, but to claim the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
But it’ll almost certainly take winning their remaining four games — which means beating the Cowboys, Ravens, and Bills (who are second, fourth, and ninth in Dalton Miller’s updated Power Rankings, respectively) in the last three weeks of the season.
That’s certainly a tall task, considering the Dolphins just lost in embarrassing fashion to the No. 27 team and haven’t beaten a team currently in the top 10 all season.
So Priority 1 going forward should be to wrap up the AFC East title before the Dolphins (9-4) host the Bills (7-6) in Week 18.
Don’t be fooled by that two-game Dolphins lead. It’s effectively a one-game lead because the Bills already own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Miami needs to be two games clear of Buffalo going into the finale to ensure that game isn’t for the division title.
The problem? The Dolphins’ hardest two-game stretch of the season (vs. Dallas in Week 16, at Baltimore in Week 17) coincides with the Bills’ easiest. Buffalo visits the nosediving Chargers and hosts the terrible Patriots those weeks.
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So even if the Dolphins beat the Jets and the Bills lose to the Cowboys this week — two results that are no sure bets — Mike McDaniel’s club will still need one of those four Week 16 and 17 games to go his way to avoid a division championship game (surely flexed to Sunday Night Football).
That’s the nightmare scenario. The Freddie Kruger, soil-your-pants scenario, Dolphins fans?
Miami loses to the rival Jets at home on a short week Sunday. That would open the door for yet another late-season five-game losing streak which would put in serious jeopardy the team’s playoff plans.
Beyond the Bills, there are five other AFC teams currently at 7-6. Should the Dolphins lose out and two of them go 3-1, Miami would be out.
There are also scenarios in which one or more of those teams would get in over the Dolphins at 9-8 since Miami’s tiebreakers (including what would be a 6-6 conference record) would all be weak in that case.
Put another way, Jets-Dolphins suddenly becomes the most important game of the year.
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