The Miami Dolphins‘ playoff scenarios increased considerably with their Week 14 loss to the Tennessee Titans.
Their late-game meltdown not only narrowed the Dolphins’ path to the 1 seed, it also opened the door for the Bills to steal the AFC East.
But it’s not panic time — yet. The Dolphins, per ESPN, are still at 96% to make the playoffs and 76% to win the division. They’re 19% to finish with the 1 seed, 20% to finish with the 2 seed, 24% to finish with the 3 seed, and 13% to finish with the 4 seed,
Saturday’s NFL tripleheader will feature four teams in the AFC playoff hunt — but will have very little functional impact on the Dolphins, aside from potential first-round matchups.
In other words, if you think the Bengals, Colts, Steelers, or Broncos are teams the Dolphins would have a good chance of beating in the Wild Card round, root for those teams Saturday.
Week 15 Miami Dolphins Playoff Scenarios, Saturday Edition
Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Vikings and Bengals are both on their backup quarterbacks, yet those key injuries haven’t ruined their playoff hopes.
Minnesota (7-6) is not only the fifth seed in the conference, the team is just one of five NFC teams currently with a winning record. The Vikings enter the weekend with a 63.2% chance of reaching the postseason, per ESPN.
MORE: PFN’s Free NFL Playoff Predictor
A 7-6 record is not nearly as valuable in the AFC. Just ask the Bengals, whose playoff chances are just 23.4%.
It’s always a smart play to root for a team outside of your conference when it plays a team inside your conference, so Dolphins fans can shout “SKOL!” without apprehension.
A Bengals loss would give them seven with three to play — meaning that, at best, they would finish the season with the same record as Miami, should the Dolphins beat the Jets on Sunday.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts
This is the most impactful game of the entire week when it comes to the AFC Wild Card race. Both the Steelers and Colts are 7-6, and both would be in the postseason field if the season ended today (Pittsburgh as the sixth seed, Indianapolis as the seventh).
Whoever wins Saturday will wake up Sunday as the sixth seed. Whoever loses will fall to 11, and have a steep climb to reach the playoffs.
As is the case with the Bengals, whoever loses this game will need everything to fall their way to catch the Dolphins in the standings by year’s end.
The only result that would have a meaningful impact on the Dolphins’ chances of reaching the playoffs is a tie because it would mean both Pittsburgh and Indianapolis could finish the year with six losses.
Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions
This one is simple: If the Lions (9-4) beat the Broncos (7-6), Denver could not finish ahead of Miami in the Wild Card (or, theoretically for the Broncos, the top four seeds) if the two teams finish in a two-way tie.
Beyond that, this game has little practical impact on the Dolphins. But it’s basically the entire season for the Broncos.
A win would make them roughly a 2 in 3 chance to reach the postseason. A loss would slash those odds in half.
