The Miami Dolphins bolstered their playoff chances by beating the Las Vegas Raiders last week to get to 4-6 on the season. Next up were the 3-8 New England Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, who the Dolphins soundly beat in Miami Gardens.
Here’s a closer look at where things stand for Mike McDaniel’s team and whether they can make a run for the postseason.
Can the Dolphins Make the Playoffs?
Heading into Week 13, the Miami Dolphins are 5-6 and now have a 34.9% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a <0.1% chance for the 1 seed, a 0.1% chance for the second seed, a 1.0% chance for the third seed, a 0.2% chance for the fourth seed, a 4.3% chance for the fifth seed, a 10.7% chance for the sixth seed, and a 18.6% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Dolphins Win the AFC East?
Here’s what the AFC East race looks like after all the action in Week 12:
- The Buffalo Bills have a 98.7% chance to win the AFC East.
- The Miami Dolphins have a 1.3% chance to win the AFC East.
- The New England Patriots have a <0.1% chance to win the AFC East.
- The New York Jets have a <0.1% chance to win the AFC East.
Current AFC East Standings
- Buffalo Bills (9-2)
- Miami Dolphins (5-6)
- New York Jets (3-8)
- New England Patriots (3-9)
AFC Playoff Race | Week 17
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-6)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
7. Denver Broncos (9-6)
In The Hunt
8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
9. Miami Dolphins (7-8)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
11. New York Jets (4-11)
12. Cleveland Browns (3-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-12)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
16. New England Patriots (3-12)
Dolphins’ Super Bowl Chances in Week 12
Can the Dolphins win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Miami has a 0.4% chance to win it all.
Dolphins’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 13: at Green Bay Packers
- Week 14: vs. New York Jets
- Week 15: at Houston Texans
- Week 16: vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Week 17: at Cleveland Browns
- Week 18: at New York Jets
What PFN Predicted for the Patriots vs. Dolphins Matchup
Here’s where the Patriots and Dolphins rank in various Pro Football Network Metrics.
Miami Dolphins, 2024:
- Offense+ Metric: 15th (C)
- Defense+ Metric: 16th (C)
- Tua Tagovailoa QB+ Metric: 2nd (A)
New England Patriots, 2024:
- Offense+ Metric: 29th (D-)
- Defense+ Metric: 25th (D+)
- Drake Maye QB+ Metric: 21st (C)
This is a tough game to pick.
On one hand, Maye’s talent should give the Patriots a better chance of keeping pace with the Dolphins than we’ve seen in recent seasons. Miami’s had New England’s number since Tom Brady left in 2020, but the Patriots had Mac Jones under center for most of those matchups. Maye is a game-changer.
However, Maye can’t play defense. And the reality is that better Patriots defenses have struggled to get Tua Tagovailoa off rhythm. Mike McDaniel has done a great job of scheming around New England’s pressure packages and giving Tagovaila easy reads.
Could that change this week? It’s hard to see it, as Miami’s offense has kicked into another gear since Tagovaiola’s return, and the Patriots defense, which generated zero sacks in Week 11, ranks 25th with a 30.3% pressure rate, per TruMedia.
If the Patriots don’t make Tagovailoa uncomfortable, they likely will be in for a long day.
That said, Tyreek Hill hasn’t looked like Tyreek Hill this season, and the Patriots have a true top cornerback in Christian Gonzalez. If New England’s run defense can hold up, its secondary should be able to prevent the Dolphins from popping off.
However, the Patriots’ offense also must do its part against a Miami defense that’s held opponents under 20 points in four of its last six games. This will be a tough test for Maye, who committed nine turnovers in his first six starts. He must take care of the ball in this game.
Still, at the end of the day, we expect the Dolphins to do what they’ve done against the Patriots in recent matchups: use speed and excellent play designs to expose New England’s slow linebackers and overrated safeties.
PFN Prediction: Dolphins 23, Patriots 17