In three short weeks, the Miami Dolphins’ hopes of making the playoffs started to feel like a real possibility. But with a loss in Green Bay against the Packers on Thanksgiving, should Dolphins fans keep their playoff hopes alive?
Here’s a rundown of the Dolphins’ playoff chances after their Week 13 matchup.
Can the Dolphins Make the Playoffs?
Heading into Week 14, the Miami Dolphins are 5-7 and now have a 22.2% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 0.0% chance for the first seed, a 0.0% chance for the second seed, a 0.0% chance for the third seed, a 0.0% chance for the fourth seed, a 2.1% chance for the fifth seed, a 5.8% chance for the sixth seed, and a 13.9% chance for the seventh seed.
In Week 13, the Bills clinched the AFC East Division title, which means the only way the Dolphins can get into the playoffs will be through a Wild Card spot.
AFC Playoff Race | Week 18
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-7)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
7. Denver Broncos (9-7)
In The Hunt
9. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
8. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
10. Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
11. New York Jets (4-12)
12. Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
15. New England Patriots (3-13)
16. Cleveland Browns (3-14)
Dolphins’ Super Bowl Chances After Week 13
Can the Dolphins win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Miami has a <0.1% chance to win it all.
Dolphins’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: vs. New York Jets
- Week 15: at Houston Texans
- Week 16: vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Week 17: at Cleveland Browns
- Week 18: at New York Jets
What PFN Predicted for the Dolphins vs. Packers Matchup
Historically, this type of a game is a loss for the Dolphins.
In the Mike McDaniel era, the Dolphins have been bad against good teams (5-14, with a total offensive EPA of -90.79 against teams who enter the matchup .500 or better), bad in cold weather (2-10, including playoffs, when the game-time temperature is 55 or below), and bad in prime time (3-9, including playoffs).
So a win Thursday night would not only keep the Dolphins’ season on track, but it also change national perceptions that this is a paper-tiger franchise.
“I’m excited to kill narratives, so let’s go,” Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa said this week. “Bring it on.”
Added Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver: “I’ve been around big-time football now since 1998. I’ve never lost a game and looked back and thought, ‘Guys, it was just too cold outside,’ so I don’t expect that to happen this week. … It doesn’t matter what the temperature is, they can go and snap this in the mall parking lot and we’re going to go and do everything we can to try to win.”
It’ll be up to Weaver to slow down a Packers offense that ranks in the top eight in points (26.2 per game), yards per play (6.2), yards per pass (8.0), OFF+ (82.2), and dropback EPA (.177).
Plus they have the NFL’s No. 3 running back in Josh Jacobs, who has 944 yards and seven touchdowns on 202 carries (4.7 per).
The only thing that has stopped the Packers offense this year? Jordan Love turnovers. His 11 interceptions in just nine games are second most in the league.