MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — The Miami Dolphins’ passing game was terrible in the four games that Tua Tagovailoa missed due to a concussion.
But here’s an inconvenient truth: It’s not a new development. Miami’s passing offense hasn’t been particularly good even with Tagovailoa on the field in a long time.
That’s why head coach Mike McDaniel should fight every impulse to go bombs away if Tagovailoa, as expected, makes his long-awaited return on Sunday.
Miami Dolphins Should Run the Darn Ball
In the Dolphins’ last nine games dating back to last season, they’ve completed just 59.8% of their passes, thrown nine interceptions to just seven touchdowns, and averaged 6.2 yards per attempt.
Put that all together, and it adds up to a 72.9 passer rating, which makes the Dolphins one of the league’s worst passing offenses over the last half-season. And again, Tagovailoa was available for four and a half of those nine games.
Our humble advice: Don’t abandon a running attack that has shown real teeth in the last two games.
Mike McDaniel on how much the Dolphins are going to put on Tua Tagovailoa’s plate his first week back pic.twitter.com/H79V88tJCl
— Adam Beasley (@AdamHBeasley) October 23, 2024
Since Week 5, the Dolphins have averaged 4.7 yards per carry and 190.5 yards per game on the ground. And they’ve done it in a sustainable way. Miami has put up those gaudy numbers without a single carry of 20+ yards in the last two games.
Asked Wednesday if the Dolphins still need to be a downhill running team even with Tagovailoa back in the lineup, RB Raheem Mostert replied:
“Absolutely. We have to play complementary football, and that’s something that’s been harped on since I’ve gotten here, and that’s what we’re going to continue to do.
“So just having Tua back, it just gives us an extra boost of morale and confidence within the offense because he has a great understanding of it, and he’s also connected with the receivers as well. So all of that stuff goes hand in hand.”
Dolphins Need Balanced Attack vs. Arizona Cardinals
Opportunities should certainly be there on the ground over the season’s final 11 weeks.
Seven of Miami’s final 11 opponents rank in the bottom 12 in rush expected points added (including the Arizona Cardinals, who visit South Florida Sunday). Just one ranks in the top 12 in that category (Green Bay Packers).
McDaniel, who made his bones in the running game as an assistant with the San Francisco 49ers, seems to get this.
“We have some very good players involved in the pass game, some of the best players in the league,” he said. “So you get them involved, but does that change your ratio of things? Not if — the one thing I’m not going to do is do something that isn’t motivated by winning the football game.
“… The bottom line is we have found the ability to run the ball with the way we kind of forecasted our evolution into Year 3,” he added. “That’s hugely important when you’re talking about down the stretch, matchups, and when you have a game that it’s win or go home, which invariably everyone does.”
Now, we’re not saying the Dolphins should run 40+ times with Tua in the lineup like they have the last two weeks. But a 50-50 split, given the recent numbers, is entirely reasonable.
Third-Down Struggles
Why? If for no other reason, it will keep the Dolphins out of 3rd-and-long, which has been their kryptonite this year.
In 3rd-and-7+ this year, Miami has completed 12 of 27 passes for 119 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The most important stat? They’ve converted just five passing first downs in 33 such dropbacks.
If Tagovailoa is operating in third-and-short to medium Sunday, the Dolphins’ chances of success go way up.
“You don’t get to pick, ‘Well, we like passing the ball,’” McDaniel said. “Is your advantage running it? Well, you better be able to run the ball that game because their pass rushers are unbelievable, and if you put yourself in known passing situations, you’re going to have four turnovers.
“To me, you need your team to be able to do whatever it takes to win, and the silver lining is finding the pieces of growth in the midst of us not getting the desired results and losing. In that, two things can be true; you can lose and you can develop. At some point, that development has to turn into wins, or it can’t be real development.
“… I think the good news is the thirst for winning is never stronger, and players and coaches alike are never more all for doing what it takes to win than when you lose.”