Hello again, football. After losses by both teams in the Wild Card Round in 2022, the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers enter the 2023 NFL season with high hopes.
But only one can escape Week 1 with a win. Who will it be? Here are PFN’s Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers game predictions and the seven biggest stats to watch, courtesy of Inside Edge.
Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers Game Preview
The Chargers and Dolphins meet for the second time in nine months. Brandon Staley’s Bolts throttled Mike McDaniel’s club last year in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score (23-17) suggested.
The win helped the Chargers make the playoffs for the first time since 2018, while the loss was the Dolphins’ second of five straight during a late-season swoon.
The Chargers, as of Saturday morning, were three-point home favorites, with a game over/under of 51 set. The moneylines: Los Angeles -165, Miami +140.
Seven Dolphins-Chargers Stats From Inside Edge
- Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) averaged 5.4 yards per carry on first downs last season — best of qualified running backs.
- The Chargers allowed 5.8 yards per carry on first downs last season — worst in the NFL.
Analysis: The Chargers held Mostert to 37 yards on 11 carries in the teams’ 2022 meeting, so more will be needed from Mostert this time around. He should get plenty of chances. Expect Mostert to get a healthy workload while Dolphins RB2 Jeff Wilson Jr. is on injured reserve.
- Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) threw the ball 10 yards or less on just 53.3% of pass attempts in the last eight weeks of the regular season — lowest of qualified quarterbacks.
- The Chargers allowed an average of just two yards per completion on targets of 10 yards or less in the last eight weeks of the regular season — best in the NFL.
Analysis: It’s no coincidence that Tagovailoa put up the lowest completion percentage in a start in his career (35.7%) on the same day he averaged his highest intended air yards (11.9). The Dolphins’ offense doesn’t work without the short and intermediate game, which the Chargers took away with press coverage last year.
Tyreek Hill revisits last year’s Chargers game pic.twitter.com/Z5VwvXkotC
— Adam Beasley (@AdamHBeasley) September 4, 2023
- Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) averaged just 1.3 yards after the catch in the last four weeks of the regular season — fourth-worst of qualified wide receivers.
- The Chargers allowed just 2.5 yards after catch per reception to WRs in the last four weeks of the regular season — best in the NFL.
Analysis: This just reinforces our previous point. The Dolphins are a timing and YAC-based offense. Hill, who acknowledged earlier this year that he didn’t truly know the offense in 2022, has room for growth in both. His YAC average (4.1) ranked 85th among all NFL players a season ago.
- Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins) gained 20 or more yards on 31.2% of receptions in the last four weeks of the regular season — fifth-best of qualified wide receivers.
- The Chargers allowed 20 or more yards on 18.6% of receptions in the last four weeks of the regular season — third-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: The Dolphins’ boom-or-bust offense definitely busted against the Chargers last year. On Tagovailoa’s 27 passes against the Chargers that didn’t include his 60-yard touchdown pass to Hill, he averaged a ghastly 3.1 yards per attempt.
- Justin Herbert (Chargers) threw 20 touchdown passes in the red zone last season — tied for sixth-most of qualified quarterbacks.
- The Dolphins allowed 24 passing touchdowns in the red zone last season — tied for the second-most in the NFL.
Analysis: This illustrates just how much worse things could have been for the Dolphins last December. The Chargers won despite converting just two of their six red zone chances into touchdowns — which was a statistical outlier for both teams in 2022.
Tua Tagovailoa on Justin Herbert:
“Justin can throw the deep ball as far as anyone in this league. There’s things that Justin does that I look at and like, ‘Oh my gosh.’ Sometimes you can’t help but fan over those plays.”
Respect. #BoltUp pic.twitter.com/hym5YYNWzt
— Chargers Central (@BoltCentral) September 7, 2023
- Austin Ekeler (Chargers) averaged 53.8 rushing yards per game last season — tied for the eighth-worst of qualified running backs.
- The Dolphins allowed an average of just 104.8 rushing yards per game last season — fourth-best in the NFL.
Analysis: We’re not intending to pick on just Ekeler here. The Chargers’ ground attack as a whole stunk last year. They ranked 30th in yards per carry (3.8). The sledding will be tough against a Dolphins front that added David Long Jr. in the offseason.
- Gerald Everett (Chargers) averaged 5.8 targets per game last season — tied for ninth-highest of qualified tight ends.
- The Dolphins allowed 5.8 receptions per game to TEs last season — tied for third-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: We’ll quickly find out how strong the Vic Fangio effect will be on the Dolphins’ defense. Miami’s new defensive coordinator runs a safety-friendly scheme. It’ll fall largely on those safeties to keep Everett in check.
Chargers vs. Dolphins Predictions
- Adam Beasley: Chargers
- David Bearman: Dolphins
- Dalton Miller: Dolphins
- Jay Morrison: Dolphins
- Dallas Robinson: Chargers
For all of PFN’s Week 1 predictions, click here.