The Miami Dolphins outlook revolves around the fantasy football potential of their potent passing attack, while the Kansas City Chiefs fantasy preview digs into their WR1 role.
Let’s dive into this international affair.
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs
- Spread: Chiefs -2.5
- Total: 51
- Dolphins implied points: 24.5
- Chiefs implied points: 27
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa: Tua’s consistency hasn’t been there for fantasy managers, but he has finished three of the past four weeks as a QB1. And with the total this high, he’s got a good chance to make it four of five.
In a different week, I’d be lower than the consensus on Tagovailoa, but this isn’t most weeks, given the injuries at the position along with four teams on bye. His QB1 performances have come in games in which he hits the big pass (no surprise there), making a matchup with a high-pressure defense that isn’t missing tackles less than ideal.
This matchup was enough to drop Tagovailoa below Justin Herbert in my Week 9 rankings, but he’s still easily a top-seven QB and one that should be started in all formats.
Patrick Mahomes: As it turns out, being sick and playing at a high altitude against a divisional opponent that you saw two weeks ago isn’t ideal. The Chiefs have been susceptible to playing down to the level of some questionable offenses. In three games against the Broncos and Jets in October, they averaged 17.0 PPG. That’s an odd thing to keep track of down the road, but it doesn’t matter against the high-flying ‘Fins.
Mahomes has thrown at least 38 passes in four straight games and has hit 20 rushing yards in seven of eight this season. I have zero reservations about Mahomes this week and have him ranked as my clear-cut QB1 this week.
Running Backs
Raheem Mostert: Another week, another score. Mostert is up to 12 scores this season, and he continues to be as fantasy-efficient as any back in the NFL.
I have him ranked as an RB1 again this week, but for those with the luxury of looking long-term, your trade window is closing quickly.
Not only is there some risk in this matchup — per the Week 9 Cheat Sheet, KC allows the third-fewest yards per play — this is the last game De’Von Achane will miss.
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The Dolphins go on bye in Week 10 and have five tough RB matchups over the final seven weeks of the fantasy season. If you can target a desperate team in your league that needs to win this week, I’d be happy to toss out a Mostert offer. Some options in a structure like that:
- Mostert + a piece for Travis Etienne Jr. (bye week)
- Mostert + a piece for David Montgomery (bye week)
- Mostert for Jonathan Taylor
Jeff Wilson Jr. and Salvon Ahmed: This duo is proof positive as to why I think this backfield becomes a committee when Achane returns from IR. Wilson and Ahmed aren’t built to be featured options, but both were involved last week (four targets for Ahmed and seven touches for Wilson), and that seems to be how this offense is going to function.
Of these two, Wilson would be the one I would hang on to. However, both are very much on the chopping block if you want to fill out your roster with upside — something I’d recommend doing.
Isiah Pacheco: Am I thrilled about Pacheco averaging under 4.0 yards per carry in four straight games? Of course not … but I’m not worried.
His role is unquestioned, and betting against a Mahomes offense just isn’t a profitable way to go about living your life.
Miami owns the sixth-worst red-zone defense this season, and if the Chiefs are going to aim to keep the Dolphins’ offense off the field, Pacheco profiles as a strong quantity and quality option this week when it comes to touches. Fire him up as your RB1 and feel good about it!
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill: With four straight top-six performances and six such weeks on his 2023 ledger, Hill is turning in a truly special season. He posted his fifth game north of 110 yards last week against the Patriots, and he looks to carry the momentum into a revenge spot.
Hill is already over 1,000 receiving yards, the first player to do that through eight weeks since 1961 (fourth to ever do it). “Cheetah” called his shot this summer and continues to pace toward a historic season.
Can his former employer scheme up a way to slow him down? I’m not sure it’s possible. This game is appointment viewing to kick off your Sunday!
Jaylen Waddle: That’s now a touchdown in three of four games, and with a season-best 12 targets earned last week against New England, confidence has officially been restored in Waddle after his slow start to the season.
He has nice upside in this high-scoring game should the Chiefs go overboard in trying to contain Hill. Even if that’s not the case, Waddle’s 9.3 targets per game over the past month are more than enough to feel good about plugging him in as a low-end WR1/strong WR2 in all formats.
Rashee Rice: The WR51 finish was Rice’s worst over the past month. Relax. For the first time this season, he led the Kansas City receivers in snaps, and he dropped what had the potential to be a huge play against Denver.
MORE: Katz’s Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Week 9 Picks
With a 76.9% catch rate this season and a sure-handed profile, I’m not worried about Rice’s ability to hang onto the football. It’s possible that a trade window has opened here, and I’d take full advantage if that is the case!
Rice remains a solid WR3 for me this week and is very much a Flex option if your league only requires two starting receivers. His role as the WR1 in Kansas City is no longer a question, and that’s a role I want to invest in.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: The Cardio King again led KC wide receivers in routes run, yet he again failed to clear 40 receiving yards. That’s now six times in his past seven games.
MVS is a dart throw in times of desperation and nothing more.
Of note, Justin Watson ran a route on 90.9% of his snaps. No action needs to be taken yet, but that usage is something that has my interest.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: Complaining about six catches for 58 yards? In this TE economy? You’re better than that.
Kelce is on pace to break the single-season record for TE receptions in Week 16 and has earned at least eight targets in every game this year.
Dating back to last postseason, he has scored in seven of 10 games. For the season, he has:
- More catches than Jaylen Waddle has targets
- More receiving yards in one fewer game than Michael Pittman Jr.
- More catches, yards, and touchdowns in one fewer game than T.J. Hockenson
Should You Start Raheem Mostert or Kenneth Walker?
This is a good problem to have, but I’d lean Mostert for this week. With De’Von Achane on the shelf for one more game, Mostert holds a clear alpha role in a game we all expect to be shoot-out.
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That’s not to knock Walker; he’s great. But the Seattle Seahawks did work in Zach Charbonnet more last week — and judging by reports — it sounds as if that is a snapshot of future weeks. Both are rock-solid options, but in terms of Week 9, I think Mostert holds the edge in both touch count and scoring equity.
Should You Start Rashee Rice or DeAndre Hopkins?
The big game from Hopkins isn’t something I’m labeling as predictive. Not yet, at least. Pittsburgh loves to blitz, and I worry that the chunk plays that drove Hopkins’ massive week are going to be few and far between.
Rice, on the other hand, plays in a game with a projected total north of 50 and is coming off of his first week this season leading the Chiefs WR room in snaps played. Ignore the underwhelming Week 8 stat line and trust the process, with him being the top option in a Mahomes-led offense. It’s Rice for me this week and for the remainder of the season.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!