Germany is getting a treat in Week 9. The 6-2 Miami Dolphins face the 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs in a possible AFC Championship preview.
Kickoff is 9:30 a.m. on NFL Network. Read on for PFN’s game prediction and seven stats that could determine the outcome, courtesy of Inside Edge.
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Preview
The line for this neutral-site game bounced around a bit, but the Chiefs were the favorites all week. As of Thursday, they were laying two points.
Is that point spread a reflection of the teams’ rosters, health, and coaching? Of course — to an extent.
MORE: Miami Dolphins Depth Chart
But this is a true coin flip game. The Chiefs are getting the respect of oddsmakers because they have proven they can beat the league’s best teams, and the Dolphins — as of yet — have not.
Their two losses have been at the Bills and Eagles by a combined 42 points. Those are the only teams with winning records on their schedule.
Seven Dolphins-Chiefs Stats From Inside Edge
Stat: The Chiefs have thrown the ball 10 yards or less 72.9% of pass attempts this season — tied for fifth-highest in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 6.8 yards per dropback on pass attempts between 1 and 10 yards this season — tied for worst in the NFL.
Analysis: Eli Apple and Kader Kohou have struggled on slants in particular this year. But if Xavien Howard does indeed return as expected after a two-week recovery from a groin injury, we’ll for the first time see the tandem of Howard and Jalen Ramsey.
Stat: The Dolphins are 3-1 (.750) when forcing one or more turnovers this season — tied for sixth-best in the NFL. The Chiefs have turned the ball over 14 times this season — tied for third-most in the NFL.
Analysis: Speaking of Ramsey, his debut in Week 9 featured his first interception in aqua and orange. More if it is needed for a Dolphins team that is somehow 6-2 despite entering Week 9 with the league’s sixth-worst turnover margin (minus-4).
Stat: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) has a just 26.8 passer rating when under pressure this season — fourth-worst of qualified quarterbacks. The Dolphins have pressured opposing QBs on 29.5% of passing plays this season — fifth-best in NFL.
Analysis: More from Inside Edge: Mahomes has turned the ball over on 8.5% of plays when pressured by the defense this season — second-worst of qualified quarterbacks.
Stat: Travis Kelce (Chiefs) has 164 receptions in 24 games (6.8 per game) since the 2022 season — best of qualified tight ends. The Dolphins have allowed 5.8 receptions per game to TEs since the 2022 season — second-worst in NFL.
Analysis: The Dolphins are getting back Jevon Holland — whom Vic Fangio called the quarterback of Miami’s defense — but it’ll be a collective defensive effort Sunday. Even Jalen Ramsey will likely get a crack at him.
Stat: Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) has been targeted 9 times inside the 10-yard line this season — tied for most of qualified wide receivers. The Chiefs have allowed five receiving touchdowns inside the 10-yard line to WRs this season — tied for third-most in the NFL.
Analysis: It’ll be fascinating to see who gets primary coverage duties on Hill — L’Jarius Sneed (who has allowed just 5.5 yards per target this year and zero touchdown passes) or Trent McDuffie (6.6 and zero).
Stat: The Dolphins have run successful plays on 48.3% of rush attempts since Week 5 — third-best in the NFL. Chiefs have allowed successful plays on 48.1% of rush attempts since Week 5 — third-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: The run game in a normal week should be a pretty obvious advantage for the Dolphins. But injuries to their offensive line is an equalizer. Can Raheem Mostert get back on track after a quiet couple of weeks?
Stat: The Dolphins have 49 touchdown passes since the 2022 season — third-most in the NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 44 passing TDs since the 2022 season — tied for most in the NFL.
Analysis: We’ve written dozens of words but haven’t yet gotten to the most obvious point — if Tua Tagovailoa (who leads the NFL in passing yards and passer rating) plays like he has for most of the season, the Dolphins have an excellent chance to win.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs Predictions
- Adam Beasley: Dolphins
- David Bearman: Dolphins
- Dalton Miller: Dolphins
- Jay Morrison: Dolphins
- Dallas Robinson: Dolphins
For all of PFN’s Week 9 predictions, click here.
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