MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — They didn’t send out a press release or fire off a tweet, but the Miami Dolphins subtly made a very significant announcement Wednesday: Tua Tagovailoa is their starting quarterback for 2023 — and hopefully beyond.
The organization’s decision to trade away their last remaining 2023 first-round pick for Bradley Chubb and tie up their cap with another big-money contract Tuesday signaled that the Dolphins wouldn’t be in the market for a quarterback next year. But a day later, Mike McDaniel and Chris Grier confirmed everyone’s assumption.
Miami Dolphins Double Down on Tua Tagovailoa
McDaniel at his Wednesday news conference agreed with a question’s premise that the team’s actions should be viewed through the prism of Tagovailoa being their long-term franchise quarterback.
“I would say you’re right, on all fronts,” McDaniel said. “From the get-go, I’ve fully seen Tua as our quarterback for this team and this franchise. I think he is an unbelievable talent. And so I guess in a roundabout way, I think that that implication, I think that’s fair.
“But it’s not something that we all of sudden rethought after he had a good game. This is something that, since I’ve been here, have kind of known, and we’ve been able to operate with that in mind, with all the things that we’ve done.”
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Actions mean more than words, however, and even as recently as April, Grier insisted he didn’t want to dip into his rich 2023 draft capital to improve the Dolphins’ 2022 roster.
While unsaid, the implication was the Dolphins wanted to keep the necessary picks to draft a quarterback if Tagovailoa didn’t pan out in 2022.
But between Tuesday’s trade and the league’s decision to strip the Dolphins’ other first-round pick due to tampering, that’s no longer an option.
And with the Dolphins up against the salary cap in 2023 even before a Chubb extension gets done, signing or trading for a high-priced vet is no longer a realistic option either.
But why would they, considering they have one of the 10 best quarterbacks in the league in 2022? Tua is first in QBR (78.7), yards per attempt (9), passer rating (112.7), and EPA+CPOE (.21).
Grier on Wednesday acknowledged that Tua’s development this year has helped accelerate the Dolphins’ timeline — and made them act as if they’re contenders in 2022.
“You heard it from Day 1, especially Mike from Day 1,” Grier said. “He was like, ‘You know, this is the guy. We’re gonna win a lot of games with him.’ You know. So, for us, this was about making a move to add a really good player at a premium position that’s 26 years old. who we will have here and have him here long-term as well. So this was again looking at now but also the future.”
What’s Next for Tua Tagovailoa?
Tagovailoa has one more year on his super-cheap rookie contract, so the Dolphins must decide whether to pick up his fifth-year option by May. Assuming he makes the Pro Bowl this year, that fifth-year tender will pay him somewhere in the neighborhood of $30 million. And after that, the Dolphins could franchise tag him in 2025, which will likely cost them north of $40 million.
In other words, they control his rights for roughly $70-75 million over the next three years. That’s great value for a top-10 quarterback and allows them to make the type of big-ticket move they made Tuesday.
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And while the Dolphins could extend him for the first time after this season, there’s no pressing deadline to do so.
But if both team and player can agree on an amount of guaranteed money that protects Tua while not hamstringing the organization, there’s no reason to think a deal won’t happen at some point in 2023 — assuming Tua remains healthy and continues to perform at a very high level.
Fortunately for Tagovailoa, he has a coach that knows the importance of having a definitive answer to the most important question in pro sports — Who’s your QB?
“I mean, in those conversations, and I’ve been on both sides of them,” McDaniel said. “You’re firmly on one side of the fence of the other, and it does change how you’re able to Big Picture operate. I think it influences it. But when you’re in the search, it’s a difficult place to be in and there is some clarity with regard to being very, very confident in your starting quarterback.”