Goodbye football season, hello free agency. The turnaround for the Miami Dolphins and the rest of the NFL is just that quick. Which means a decision on how to proceed with defensive tackle Christian Wilkins is just days away.
In truth, it’s probably already been made.
Will Miami Dolphins Use Franchise Tag on Christian Wilkins?
Of the four Dolphins players on PFN’s Top 100 free agents list, none is bigger than Wilkins, the excellent defensive tackle who’s coming off the best season of his five-year career.
After trying and failing to sign him to an extension before the 2023 regular season, the Dolphins tabled contract discussions until the games were done.
Here’s what Dolphins GM Chris Grier had to say about the situation when he spoke with reporters last month:
“Like we’ve always talked here in the past, our goal is to keep as many good players here as we can. … Christian and I actually had a really good conversation today. I was very happy for him. He bet on himself after a summer of negotiations where we made a couple offers and one we felt very good about, was fair, and he and his representation said as much, but we couldn’t close that gap at the end.
“So he bet on himself and it paid off for him. I’m very happy for him. So we’ll stay in communication and see where this ends up, but he earned the right to be a free agent. Again, I’m happy for him. We drafted him here, developed him here, and he’s the type of person we’re looking for. So we’ll see what happens.”
What’s happened in the last month? No deal, and no leaks about one being close.
The Dolphins — who are some $50 million over the salary cap — have 20 days to get one done before having to make a really tough decision.
Do they franchise tag him — which would be a one-year, fully guaranteed extension at an estimated $19.7 million? (Exact tag figures will be determined once the salary cap is announced in the coming days.)
That would be the no-brainer move if the Dolphins weren’t so hard up against the cap. And they still very well could do it, but not necessarily with the intention of paying him that.
Instead, Miami could attempt to tag and trade Wilkins, whose estimated market value per Spotrac is $81 million over four years ($20.3 million annually).
Doing so comes with both risk and reward.
The reward? Getting a premium draft pick this year instead of next (the Dolphins would be in line for a third-round compensatory pick should they simply allow Wilkins to walk in free agency).
The risk? It’s possible Miami can’t find a trade partner and is stuck with Wilkins’ budget-busting franchise tag figure.
Surely, if the Dolphins are strongly considering this option, they’ve already quietly chatted up potential trade partners to gauge their interest.
Teams that both need a defensive tackle and have cap space include the Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans, and the Indianapolis Colts.
Again, we will have resolution on this issue very shortly. The window to place the franchise tag on pending free agents is Feb. 20 through March 4.
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The best solution for all sides? That the Dolphins and Wilkins iron out an extension before the tag deadline that both keeps him here long term and also doesn’t blow up their books in 2024.
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