During OTAs two months back, Miami Dolphins defensive tackle Christian Wilkins said the following when asked about his yet-to-be-resolved contract situation:
“I’m always motivated and motivation comes from within, not a dollar amount, but it’s just my drive to be the best and be my best. No dollar changes that, changes my mindset. Whether something gets done or not my approach is always the same.”
Assuming that mindset has not changed in the nine weeks since, the Dolphins should consider themselves lucky to avoid the camp holdout drama that the Cowboys, Giants, and Raiders are dealing with this summer.
But the can can only be kicked down the road so far. Wilkins’ contract must be addressed — and there’s a real chance the outcome is Wilkins plays in a different uniform in 2024.
Can Miami Dolphins, Christian Wilkins Work It Out?
Wilkins, 27, is set to earn $10.8 million under the fifth-year option in 2023. While that’s a big jump over his rookie deal, he’s still significantly underpaid compared to his peers.
The defensive tackle market has gone bananas this offseason, with Quinnen Williams (four years, $96 million with $66 million guaranteed), Jeffery Simmons (4/$94M, $59.3M), Daron Payne (4/$90M, $59M), Dexter Lawrence (4/$87.5M, $60M), and Ed Oliver (4/$68M, $45.3M) all getting contracts whose AAVs were reserved only for quarterbacks just a few years back.
“I was excited about Lawrence,” Wilkins said, speaking about his former college teammate. “That’s my fat little brother, so I was excited about him. But it’s good to see.
“It’s just good to see the growth of the game and clearly how much d-line play, especially interior, means to teams, and it’s good to see that. It’s just great to see that, it’s good for the game, and it’s good for the guys that come after us.
“I’m a big believer in doing right by the game, doing things right and paying it forward for those guys coming after you regardless of whether it’s a dollar, whether it’s just doing things the right way, someone they can look up to. I’m just big on respecting the game. It’s cool to see.”
It’s even cooler to be a part of. That day is coming.
Wilkins might not be one of the top five players at his position, but he’s not far off. In four NFL seasons, Wilkins has 11.5 sacks, 33 tackles for loss, and 27 quarterback hits, with a career missed-tackle rate of just 3.3%. Last year, he set personal bests in tackles (98) and tackles for loss (16). He also led the NFL in run-stop win rate (46%).
But Wilkins’ impact on the Dolphins’ defense goes beyond the numbers. He’s a team leader — both a captain and a players’ union team rep — and the heart and soul of the defense. Plus, he’s a button-pusher in the trenches and lives rent-free in Josh Allen’s head.
Put it all together, and it makes sense Wilkins, the 13th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, ranks 10th on PFN’s list of defensive tackles.
“He’s a very good player here,” Dolphins general manager Chris Grier said in April. “You know how we feel about him. We’ve talked about what he’s done on and off the field for us. So we’re still working through it, but hopefully, we can get him here and keep him here for a long time.”
But if they cannot, it’s because the Dolphins in the last two years have prioritized paying other teams’ players over their own.
Miami Dolphins’ Dicey Cap Situation
The Dolphins could have extended Wilkins at any point beginning March 2022, but they haven’t. What they have done in the last 16 months: traded for Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb, and Jalen Ramsey and signed Terron Armstead to a free agent contract.
Combined, Miami has handed out more than $200 million in guarantees to those four players.
Those moves have made the Dolphins a better team. But they also both severely limited their options in 2024 — when Wilkins is set to reach free agency — and, either intentionally or not, sent the message that acquiring those players has been more important than securing their own long-term.
Wilkins and Tua Tagovailoa are both eligible for contract extensions. Both have gotten their fifth-year options picked up by the team, but nothing more.
Now in fairness, that’s how NFL market forces work. The Dolphins have Wilkins’ rights for one more year and Tua’s for two more. If they had reached free agency this year, Miami might have been motivated to offer them more.
Instead, it’s a worry for another day.
Unfortunately, that day — at least for Wilkins — is in 2024, when the Dolphins are basically broke. They are over the cap by nearly $50 million and will need to play the cut-and-restructure game simply to get in the black.
What Is Christian Wilkins’ Market Value?
Can the Dolphins pull that off and still keep Wilkins? Sure, but not with the franchise tag.
The one-year figure for that position is estimated to be north of $20 million in 2024. The Dolphins already have six players on track to have cap charges of $20 million-plus next year. Adding a seventh would be devastating for any chances to build a complete roster.
So it’s almost certainly a long-term deal or bust for Wilkins (unless the Dolphins do something crazy like trade Tagovailoa).
What might that deal look like?
Spotrac pegs Wikins’ market value at four years, $77.9 million ($19.4M AAV), which would rank eighth among defensive tackles and 61st among all NFL players.
Is Wilkins one of the 61 best players in football? No, but that’s not how market forces work. Someone will pay him in that range — particularly since Ed Oliver, an inferior player, just got $17M AAV.
So the question isn’t if Wilkins cashes in, but rather who is opening up the vault.
The best-case scenario for the Dolphins? A deal gets done now in a way that keeps the cap pain moderate until 2025, when Miami has a ton of space but very few players under contract.
Put another way: it might be now or never for a Wilkins extension in Miami.