With Melvin Gordon sidelined last week, rookie running back Javonte Williams posted a breakout fantasy performance. He finished as the RB1 on the week with 26.8 points in half-PPR scoring. Gordon is likely to be active for Week 14, so how should fantasy football managers approach the Denver backfield?
Update 12/12/2021: Melvin Gordon is active for the Denver Broncos in Week 14.
Javonte Williams is good at football
Williams was a star running back at the University of North Carolina. In his junior season, he ran for 1,140 yards and 19 TDs while catching 25 passes for 305 yards and 3 additional scores. He did all this in 11 games while sharing work with Michael Carter, who looks great for the New York Jets.
Williams was a broken tackle machine at North Carolina, and he’s continued that trend to start his NFL career. He leads all running backs with 26 broken tackles, ahead of Jonathan Taylor’s 18.
Last week, in Williams’ first career start, 92 of his 102 rushing yards came after contact, showing he has the makings of a superstar running back when given a full workload.
The problem for fantasy managers resides in Gordon, who continues to factor into Denver’s backfield when he’s healthy.
Melvin Gordon has been good enough
From a real-life perspective, the way the Broncos have approached their backfield makes total sense.
Gordon is the incumbent veteran, and while he technically is listed as the starter, this backfield has been as close to an even split as you’re going to find. It keeps both backs healthy and fresh when they’re on the field, but it’s certainly annoying for fantasy purposes.
Can’t we just have a full dose of Williams as a lead back? Please?
After 12 games, Williams has 140 carries to Gordon’s 135. Williams has 670 yards, Gordon has 605. Gordon leads Williams in rushing touchdowns, 5 to 2. Gordon has been right there with Williams in production, making it an easy decision for Denver to continue to give both backs work.
Javonte Williams fantasy expectations
Last week showed what the future could look like for Williams as a lead back, but it’s not his time yet. With Gordon on track to play this weekend, fantasy managers need to be prepared for a committee approach once again — even though Williams is the better running back.
Williams has 6 rushes of 20+ yards this season. Gordon has 1. The rookie is more efficient, breaks more tackles, makes more big plays, and is capable of being an elite back. Someday, we’ll get to see it.
This week, the Broncos get the Detroit Lions, who were a soft matchup against the run early in the season but have been better in recent weeks. But they still profile as a plus matchup. Based on what Williams did last week, it’s possible he sees more work than Gordon. Still, I wouldn’t expect there to be a significant difference.
If you have Gordon or Williams, I would treat each as an RB2, with Williams potentially having RB1 upside if the coaching staff decides to give him a heavier workload.