Denver Broncos running back Melvin Gordon is nearing the end of his career but is still a productive NFL player. After being unable to find a team willing to give him a starting job, he returned to Denver to serve as Javonte Williams’ backup. What can fantasy football managers expect from Gordon in the 2022 season, and is he worth his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Melvin Gordon’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Gordon has had quite an impressive career. Following a disastrous rookie campaign, he emerged as a high-end fantasy RB1 for the next three seasons. Since he peaked in 2018, Gordon has declined. But it’s been a gradual decline. He has not fallen off a cliff like many of his contemporaries.
Last season, Gordon averaged a very respectable 4.5 yards per carry. He surpassed 1,000 yards from scrimmage and finished as a low RB2, averaging 12.2 PPR fantasy points per game.
Gordon operated as the Broncos’ lead back. Despite being 28 years old, Gordon played 52% of the snaps, had one of the better evaded tackles per touch rate in the league, and was still effective as a receiver with an 8% target share.
How the Broncos’ depth chart impacts Melvin Gordon’s fantasy projection for the season
Heading into the 2022 season, Gordon was hoping to get a job with another team as a starter. Despite his quality play last year, Gordon severely overestimated the desire of other teams to sign a 29-year-old running back to be their lead back. As a result, he returned to Denver for another season.
The Broncos traded up to draft Javonte Williams in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft. He is their running back of the future and will be their RB1 this season. With that said, Gordon is not simply going to disappear. He was brought back to play a meaningful role.
Javonte Williams will be the lead back, but Gordon will have a significant role
Barring injury, Williams will lead this backfield in snap share. Over the first half of the 2021 season, the split was around 55-45 in favor of Gordon. This year, it will at least flip in favor of Williams. However, I don’t expect it to be heavier than 60-40.
The Broncos have a very shallow running back depth chart with just Mike Boone and Damarea Crockett behind Williams and Gordon. As a result, those two will handle nearly all of the touches.
Last year, the Broncos were one of just seven teams to run fewer than 1,000 total plays. With Teddy Bridgewater and an uninspiring offense, the Broncos played slow and were in the top third of the league in run rate.
The Broncos’ offense will look a lot different this season
The 2022 Broncos look very different offensively. Courtland Sutton is another year removed from his ACL tear. Jerry Jeudy is healthy after missing a huge chunk of last season with a high ankle sprain. And, oh yeah, the team traded for Russell Wilson.
This offense should run more plays and score more points. What Gordon loses in volume, he could make up for in efficiency.
Gordon may not be a fantasy RB2 again, but he can be an RB3. And he’s an RB3 with a clear path to being a high RB2 should something happen to Williams.
Gordon’s ADP for 2022
Gordon’s ADP is around 100th overall. He’s being drafted as a low RB3 (RB36). Historically, 29-year-old running backs aren’t great bets to outperform their ADP. That said, Gordon is in a unique situation where we’ve already seen him in this role.
He can lose 10-20% of his work from last season and still produce RB3 numbers. I expect Gordon to be a viable weekly starting option, albeit not a great one. That is reflected in the PFN consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, where he sits as the RB33 at 75th overall.
What makes Gordon most appealing is the upside in the event of a Williams injury. If Williams misses time, Gordon should still have enough left in the tank to operate as a three-down back for a few weeks. He certainly wouldn’t see the types of workloads he saw with the Chargers, but he would be the main guy and a weekly RB2, at worst.
Gordon is one of my favorite later-round running back targets. Regardless of what draft strategy you employ, Gordon is a worthwhile selection in the seventh or eighth round of fantasy drafts.