Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers are set to play the Houston Texans in the Wild Card. It will be the second playoff game of Herbert’s career, and he needs a win to ensure his disappointing first playoff game doesn’t get brought up in the future.
Herbert’s first postseason game came against the Jacksonville Jaguars two seasons ago, when his team blew a 27-0 lead to lose 31-30. The Chargers quarterback has faced criticism throughout his career for failing to win big games, but Danny Parkins thinks Herbert is having a similar start to his career as Peyton Manning.
Danny Parkins Draws Similarities Between Justin Herbert and Peyton Manning
In a recent segment on FS1’s “Breakfast Ball,” Parkins talked about how Manning didn’t win a playoff game until his sixth season in the league. Herbert is in his fifth season, and Parkins is quite confident about the quarterback ending his career as an all-time great.
“Justin Herbert is still on pace to be an all-time great,” said Parkins. “Oh, he’s got all the completions and the yards, but he doesn’t have the wins, and he blew a 27-point lead to Jacksonville. That was one game, and it wasn’t a good one, but it was one game. ‘How can you say with no playoff wins, he still could be an all-time great?’ Because I watched Peyton Manning’s career.”
Give @DannyParkins a minute on why Justin Herbert is "still on pace to be an all-time great!" 👀
The beginning of his career is shaping a lot like Peyton Manning… 🫡 pic.twitter.com/BDPAe0c36e
— Breakfast Ball (@BrkfstBallOnFS1) January 9, 2025
Parkins also showed a graphic showing that, through the first 79 career games, Manning and Herbert had identical win-loss records (41-38) and a similar amount of passing touchdowns (37). At that point, the Hall of Famer was 0-2 in the playoffs, and the Chargers star is currently 0-1.
“Peyton didn’t get it until Year 6, so really, he’s free-rolling,” added Parkins. “Justin Herbert passes every metric, every eye test, his team has let him down — let him throw the ball a little bit more. You don’t have to be so reliant on the running game, but Justin Herbert is still going to be an all-time great.”
Parkins also showed how legendary quarterbacks like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford also didn’t get a playoff win in their first five seasons in the league.
It was a pretty good example of why it’s not ideal to give up on the idea of Herbert becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The Oregon product has all the intangibles required to succeed in the league, and once it clicks for him, it will be hard not to put him in Tier 1 of quarterbacks alongside Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson.
Herbert Has a Good Opportunity To Redeem Himself on Saturday
Herbert didn’t put up monster numbers this season, but he was quite good throughout the campaign. He led the Chargers to an 11-win season, the most wins of his career yet. In 17 games, the 26-year-old quarterback threw for 3,870 yards, 23 touchdowns, and a career-low total of three interceptions. He completed 65.9% of his throws with a career-high passer rating of 101.7.
The Oregon alum finished 14th in PFN’s QB+ metric, and PFN Analyst Ben Rolfe noted a crescendo: “Herbert ranks fourth in the last four weeks and may well be peaking just in time for the playoffs. Two of his four B- or better performances came in the last four weeks, and three of his eight games graded as a C+ or better fell in that timespan.”
Herbert now has a favorable matchup against a Texans team that hasn’t looked convincing enough throughout the season. C.J. Stroud is having a poor season, and it will be tough for him to play well against a good Chargers defense behind a weak offensive line.
The Texans are also without Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs, so the Chargers can increase their chances of winning the game if they smother Nico Collins. Herbert’s team also has the league’s best-scoring defense, so there’s no excuse for him not to win this game.
This is the Chargers quarterback’s second playoff game of his career, and he has been a favorite in both of them. The loss to the Jaguars was terrible, but if his team loses to the Texans on Saturday, it will be held against Herbert unless he makes the Super Bowl.